Posts From Fabio Telarico

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Finance North America

The US’s schizophrenic recovery: Banks’ earnings on the rise as the government bails out families

Talks of a “K-shaped” recovery after the pandemic crisis started in 2020, predicting that some sectors of the economy will benefit disproportionately by the pandemic, while everyone else bears the costs for it. Big banks and the world of finance are surely to be on the benefiting end. However, policy-makers, shareholders and executives seem to be missing a key lesson of the Great Recession -the risk of an enriching bank system that loses touch of reality may aggravate the schizophrenia of the post-pandemic economies.

Economics Finance

Finance in 2021: The Challenges and Opportunities 2020 Left Behind

Even though the new year has been around for a while, new trends keep emerging in the world of finance. The greatest challenges and opportunities of 2021 all rest on phenomena and policies initiated in previous years. Sure, what lies ahead is much less certain than some analysts seem to believe. Nevertheless, it is worthwhile for investors look at what they can expect in the next months and brace for it – or reap.

Europe Politics

Bulgaria’s pre-electoral tensions: From constitutional crisis to institutional trench war

In late summer 2020, people took to the streets of Bulgaria in their thousands to protest against the current cabinet. They shook Bulgaria with demands for the immediate resignation of PM Boyko Borisov and Attorney General Ivan Geshev. Shortly after, the standoff began to slowly but steadily evolve into a constitutional crisis. In 2021, events have morphed even further into an institutional trench war. The upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections hold the keys to the Sofia’s future.

Europe Politics

The Pipeline No One’s Celebrating: Balkan Stream’s Operability and the Future of Europe’s Energy Security

The competition of the ‘Balkan Stream’ (BS) extension to the Turk Stream pipeline has received little attention. This holds true strangely even in the countries through which it runs: Bulgaria and Serbia. Nevertheless, the pipeline has the potentiality to change the geopolitics of natural-gas supply. How will South Eastern Europe exploit this opportunity — if at all?

Finance International

What bubbles, eventually bursts: are 2020’s tech IPOs the path to the first post-pandemic crisis?

2020 was a “bust-and-boom pandemic year” for financial markets. In fact, December was the hottest month when it came to what big investors are really putting money into: tech IPOs. With buyers pouring their money into ever-riskier bets, is the IPO bubble set to burst?

Environment Europe

The Bulgarian Energy Market between Subsidies and Challenges

Many know Bulgaria as the poorest country in the EU. The country consistently lags behind its Western partners and ranks the lowest in a variety of areas. From disposable income to media freedom, as well as corruption and trust in the government. However, there seems to be an area in which Bulgaria is outperforming the EU average: green development. A combination of subsidies and ponderous growth has fostered this outcome, but the way ahead is not guaranteed.

Economics Finance North America

Killing the Dollar: A Side-Effect of COVID and its Cures?

Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has consistently functioned as a safe harbour for investors caught by any sort of turbulence. Thus, no one was surprised by its appreciation at the height of the current pandemic, which began in April 2020. And no one will be surprised if vaccine makers’ promises to end the pandemic null all those gains. Yet, the currency’s status and reputation have been weakening since the demise of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1974 to the point that, as a side-effect, COVID and its cures may be lethal for the dollar’s international dominance.

Europe Politics

Small-Country Diplomacy: What if Bulgaria Prevents Further EU enlargement?

Discussions of further enlargement of the EU have largely stalled since the Brexit referendum. Among others, France emerged as the main obstacle on Western-Balkan countries’ path towards Brussels. But the recent Berlin Process summit has proved that Sofia could be an even tougher nut to crack, especially for Skopje.

International Natural resources and energy

COVID-19 and the green revolution: A new energy order in the making?

The pandemic has accelerated an ongoing switch towards greener energy, to the point that some foresee a “new energy order” in the making. But these calls are likely exaggerated, with traditional energy sources predicted to stay dominant.

Technology and infrastructure Under The Radar

Under the Radar: The 5G Spat in the Balkans

The US Presidency will finally shift in Joe Biden’s hand come January 2021. Yet, there is a fil rouge that connects Barack Obama’s tenure to the current and future foreign-policy orientation of the US, especially vis-à-vis China. The struggle against China is not set to fade in the foreseeable future. Banning Huawei from servicing Western countries’ 5G infrastructure has been a key part of this antagonism. A group of Balkan capitals have just sided with Washnington in its feud with Beijing. However, should the US be concerned about these countries’ economic ties with Beijing undermining their commitment to the common cause?