Latest Insights

Back to homepage
Environment North America Security

Climate Change, Hurricanes and US Security

The effects of climate change are being increasingly felt across the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently predicted a seventh consecutive ‘above average’ hurricane season for 2022. This comes after suggestions by scientists that previous above-average seasons had been exacerbated by anthropogenic (human-caused) climatic factors. In line with this evidence, US political actors frequently depict climate-exacerbated hurricanes as a threat to national security. However, this rhetoric is not culminating in a sufficient adaptive and mitigative policy response.

Europe Politics

Opinion: Churn in No. 10: Around the Cabinet in 49 Days

The spectacle of British politics has recently found new highs (or lows, depending on the observer). Although exciting to watch, it does nothing to placate the anxieties faced by businesses and households in the context of rocketing inflation, which was amplified by Liz Truss’s now collapsed administration and the failed ‘mini budget’. This article provides a brief history of the events – and explores the fallout – alongside some underlying economic risks.

Europe The Security Briefing

EU-NATO Defense Cooperation

Europe’s significant though incomplete security response to Russia’s war in Ukraine suggests that the achievement of European strategic autonomy exists on an extended timeline. In the near-term, deepened defense integration between the European Union (EU) and NATO will support capability modernization and interoperability while expanding European equipment procurement networks. The NATO 2022 Strategic Concept’s cooperative security provisions and the EU’s 2022 Strategic Compass provide a practical framework for strengthened EU-NATO cooperation.

Insights Latin America Politics

Enduring Denialism: A Threat to Sustainable Peace in Colombia

The 2016 peace deal between the FARC-EP guerrilla and the Colombian state has proven domestically polarising. Recently, the release of the final report of the Truth Commission has highlighted denialism as an important cause of persistent violence. Massive contestation of the report on behalf of the Colombian right thereby shows that this denialism is far from overcome. Rather, it poses significant challenges to the newly elected Petro administration as well as Colombia’s peacebuilding prospects more generally.

Europe International Security

The United States’ War Against Russian Disinformation: Is the GEC Fit for Purpose?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has brought renewed focus to America’s ability to defend against the Kremlin’s separatist narratives that seek to stoke ethnolinguistic tensions amongst Russian-Speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas and Crimea.  The State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC), charged with leading the U.S.’ response to disinformation, is a fledgling six-year-old department with a shifting mission, unstable staffing and a limited budget. Despite significant headwinds, the Center’s modest efforts to counter disinformation through strategic partnerships with foreign governments and media outlets, as well as its sponsorship of emerging counter-disinformation (CPD) technologies continue to hold promise for the ongoing effort to counter Russian propaganda.

International Politics Security

The International Law of War and Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’

Moscow has refused to call its actions in Ukraine a ‘war’, instead suggesting that it is simply conducting a ‘special military operation’. Such an unyielding position is inherently steeped in the international law of warfare. By refusing to issue an official Declaration of War against Kyiv, the Kremlin is cherry-picking jus ad bellum norms in order to paint its actions as a “[humanitarian] intervention by invitation”, feeding into its perception of Ukraine as an unviable state, whilst also seeking to avert a myriad of unfavourable domestic implications which would be triggered by a State of War.

North America Politics Security

Opinion: The Attempted Assassination of Brett Kavanaugh and Far-Left Extremism

This article, following this author’s analysis on far-right extremist violence, examines and analyzes the recent uptick in political extremist violence in the United States. The recent thwarted assassination attempt on US Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh shines a spotlight on far-left extremism, a security issue long-neglected by US authorities. While it is much less deadly than either jihadism or far-right extremism, far-left violence is very real: multiple “lone-wolf” extremists inspired by anti-government sentiment have committed acts of violence in the past five years, while far-left extremist organizations have repeatedly exploited peaceful protests to wreak revolutionary havoc. Sharpening political tensions in the US – largely stemming from the overturn of Roe v. Wade and the coming midterm elections – mean further acts of far-left violence are increasingly likely. 

Environment Europe

UK Conservative Leadership: Climate Policy?

Recent unprecedented temperatures experienced within the United Kingdom – recorded as exceeding 40 degrees celsius for the first time – exemplify the increasing likelihood and intensity of severe heatwave events in the region as a result of climate change. This comes not long after the publishing of a new Progress Report by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), which highlights major failures in delivery of policy commitments vital to achieving the UK’s climate goals. With the Conservative leadership race in its final stage, Conservative party members are left with two choices, former chancellor Rishi Sunak and former foreign secretary, Liz Truss, but what of their commitments to a net-zero UK?

Africa Europe Natural resources and energy Security

Nigeria: An emerging strategic partner to Europe’s energy transition

Nigeria could be emerging as a key strategic partner to Europe’s energy transition, and the Franco-Nigerian relationship is at its heart.

Europe Security

“De-Nazification is an Absolute Must”: Moscow’s Narrative in Ukraine

Russia’s propaganda narrative of ‘de-nazifying’ Ukraine has begun to undergo a linguistic de-securitization of sorts, in parallel with the Kremlin’s focus on more minimalist objectives as part of its ‘special military operation’. Any further linguistic de-vilification of the Ukrainian side will be key to a successful negotiation process between Kyiv and Moscow, since Putin cannot afford to be seen, especially domestically, as negotiating with ‘neo-Nazis’.