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Middle East/North Africa Under The Radar

COVID-19 and the GCC Security Dilemmas

May 25 marked the 39th anniversary of the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Across the Gulf, the occasion was welcomed as an opportunity to reflect on how the

Economics Europe

Serbia: Robust Q1 Performance Unlikely to Continue

The Serbian economy performed well during the first quarter of 2020. Structural factors, such as a smaller dependence on tourism, as well as effective fiscal and monetary responses, have significantly alleviated contractionary pressures. However, guiding the economy throughout the rest of the year will be a more laborious endeavour. 

Insights Latin America

Venezuela: The Risk to the Maduro Regime’s Stability

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Moros and several top-level officials in Venezuela were indicted on charges of “narco-terrorism” by U.S. Attorney General William Barr on Thursday the 26th of March, 2020. This indictment follows a months-long escalation of tensions between Caracas and Washington D.C. 

Insights

India: Impact of COVID-19 on adoption of BS-VI norms

On the 1st of April 2020, India adopted the BS-VI emission norms. The move places India in a select group of economies with Euro VI-compliant fuels. However, the move to low sulphur transport fuel is fraught with downside risk given the impact of COVID 19 on the Indian economy. The capital-intensive move by refineries and automobile manufacturers has now moved into a stage where the revival of demand and coordinated price adjustment is essential for cost recovery. 

Covid-19 Economics

Making History: Coronavirus and Negative Oil Prices

Since the beginning of the Coronavirus pandemic, there has been a loss of 1/3rd global demand – more than 30 million barrels per day (BPD). The virus instilled a level of uncertainty for oil traders, but the catalyst for the initial drop in price can be attributed to the escalating price war between Russia and Saudi for market share, eventually leading Saudi to flood the market with oil.

Europe Politics

Hungary: Coronavirus and Orban’s Power Play

For Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, the coronavirus pandemic is another opportunity to pursue his approach of power politics in a democracy, that is increasingly at odds with the EU’s values.

Middle East/North Africa Security

MENA Power Brokers: Esmail Qaani

Under Qaani the Qods Force will continue Iran’s strategy, but their activities are likely to be more careful, restrained and in line with mainstream policy. How will this affect the Middle East?

Asia Pacific Europe

EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: Vietnam’s Competitive Gains

Given the recent slowdown in trade growth in major economies, Vietnam remains an outlier. The country’s import-export turnover crossed USD 500 billion in 2019.

China Economics

COVID-19: China’s e-commerce

All markets and industries have struggled under the strain of coronavirus and the measures implemented to combat it. Firms and individuals alike have sought out ways of mobilising solutions in response to the challenges COVID-19 presents.

Covid-19 Economics Insights North America

US: Inflationary pressures are highly unlikely

As a response to the Covid-19 outbreak, the United States unveiled a $2 trillion package in March – the largest of its kind. Aside from the expansion of debt, potential inflation has been a cause for concern. But several factors ensure that broad inflationary pressures will almost certainly be absent during the lockdown, and, likely, in the immediate period after.