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Economics Europe

Britain’s Economic Outlook – Navigating Brexit

As news of the last-minute trade deal with the EU emerged, right-wing commentators in publications such as The Spectator embraced it with cautious optimism. Johnson’s administration will not be leaping into the dark, but the economic costs of the pandemic and Brexit, irrespective of the trade deal, will likely pave the way for a bleak decade. 

Latin America Politics

Alex Saab and the State of Corruption in Venezeula

The Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro has been accused of turning a blind eye to or engaging actively in corruption for both the personal enrichment of state officials and as part of sanction-dodging efforts. Among other individuals linked to corruption by the Maduro government, in June 2020 Colombian national Alex Saab was arrested in Cape Verde in connection with an Interpol Red Notice concerning money laundering. Now, 6 months after his arrest, it seems likely that he will be extradited to the US. How significant is Saab to the Maduro government and what impact might his extradition have?

Middle East/North Africa Politics

After Coalition Collapse, Israel faces its Fourth Election in Two Years

On Tuesday 22 Dec. 2020, the Knesset failed to pass an annual budget, automatically triggering an election. Israelis will head to the polls on 23 March 2021, facing an election during a pandemic for the second time. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a string of electoral successes over the past decade, his path to retaining power does not look smooth. The Prime Minister has frequently referred to his opponents in previous elections as ‘weak leftists’ however his rivals in this election share his conservative beliefs.

North America Security

Sunburst: US Government Bodies Face Most Seismic Cyber Breach Since Cold War

Over the weekend of 12th-13th December 2020, it became apparent that a number of US Federal agencies and departments had been hacked as part of one of the “worst ever” cyber attacks in history. The intention of the attack appears to have been to conduct a “high-end espionage operation”, with the goal of stealing government and military secrets. The true scale and significance of the breach remains unknown. However, the attack has shaken governments around the world, exposing the fact that their defences are not strong enough, and that the security of software suppliers is an issue of vital importance.

Africa Security

Counter-terrorism in the Sahel: Can Task Force Takuba be a Game Changer for France

In 2021, Task Force Takuba, bringing together the special forces of 7 European countries to fight terrorism in the Sahel, will become fully operational with an initial mandate of 3 years. France, stuck in what looks like an unwinnable war despite the mobilisation of 5,100 troops as part of Operation Barkhane since 2014, has been advocating for a “Europeanisation” of the military intervention in the region for quite some time. While Takuba will enable more tactical wins against terrorist groups and enable France to break with its diplomatic and military isolation, it is unlikely to change the direction of the conflict. In this context, what is the future of operation Barkhane?

Covid-19 Latin America

Cry for me, Argentina: COVID-19 and Economic Woe

2020 cannot be described as a good year for Argentina. Already struggling with high inflation and a sovereign debt of over $300 billion, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic confronted the Argentine government with new financial drains and economic hurdles. Faced with this crisis, Argentina’s economy has undergone a severe contraction. Though Argentina’s economic situation is, along with that of many other countries affected by the pandemic, expected to rebound in 2021, indications are not positive for a long-term indication in the country’s economic situation.

Insights Politics

The Murder of Giulio Regeni and the Egyptian-Italian Partnership

Four agents of the Egyptian secret services have been formally accused of the murder of the Italian student Giulio Regeni. Notwithstanding the widespread outrage among the Italian population, the government’s

Africa Security

Water Security and the GERD: Is Conflict Brewing on the Nile?

Egyptian and Ethiopian tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have been escalating over the past decade. Whilst Egypt’s concerns over water scarcity could lead to conflict in the long-term, internal development could alleviate worries over scarce water resources. Egypt’s desire to recoup their position as regional hegemon, however, may prove influential in the escalating tensions. 

Middle East/North Africa Politics Security

Israel Continues to Gain Alliances Through US Deals

The strengthening of former diplomatic ties and the establishment of new ones, have poised Israel for greater security amongst its regional counterparts. As Israel’s evolving role in global politics is continuously being shaped by the policies of the countries around it, the ardent support by the US has allowed for this nation to gain more legitimacy in the eyes of its former enemies.

Asia Pacific Technology and infrastructure

A Neglected Frontier: Challenges to Japan’s Cyber Security

2020’s SolarWinds cyberattack, which affected numerous US government agencies, underscores the growing relevance of IT security and cyber-crime to national governments. Not solely the work of individual criminals, crimes perpetrated by state-sponsored or entirely state-operated hacker groups have increasingly been alleged. With cyberspace growing in importance as a frontier of political contestation, states must act; what steps has Japan been taking, and what barriers are there to enhancing Japan’s cybersecurity?