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Latin America Politics Security

Forever War: The Unfulfilled Peace in Colombia

Despite the signing of a peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla organization in June 2016, Colombia continues to struggle with armed violence by far-left guerrilla groups including the ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and FARC dissidents, as well as by right wing paramilitaries and criminal cartels. The causes of this continued violence are numerous and range from the attitude of the Duque administration towards the peace agreement, to the situation in neighbouring Venezuela.

Latin America Politics

Latin America – Russia’s Game in 2021: an Outlook

Latin America is at a turning point and there will be a lot at stake for Russia’s influence building in the region in 2021. The instability created by an unprecedented recession and an increased political polarisation in what promises to be a hectic electoral year as well as a more active US foreign policy after Trump’s neglect will probably increase Moscow’s appetite for the subcontinent.

Economics Latin America

Rumours of reform: the likelihood and consequences of currency reform in Cuba

Indications have been growing that the Cuban government intends to move forward with sweeping reforms to the country’s currency and exchange rate systems. These reforms will certainly involve the unification of the country’s current dual currency system. Nevertheless, such a change is easier said than done and will almost certainly be painful in the short term.

Latin America Politics

Crisis in Peru: The interplay between COVID and Corruption

Peru is in the throes of a political crisis following the outbreak of protests after the impeachment of now former President Martín Vizcarra, ostensibly due to corruption during his time as Governor of the province of Moquegua between 2011 and 2014. The protestors see Vizcarra’s impeachment as politically motivated, carried out to halt the anti-graft initiatives he sought to implement; the protests have also been inflamed by alleged police brutality that led to the deaths of 2 demonstrators. It is likely that some concession by the government will be made in order to defuse this tension.

Latin America Politics

What a Biden Presidency Means for Latin America

With his position as President-Elect all but guaranteed, it is important that leaders and policymakers grasp the policies and stances Joe Biden is likely to take on a myriad of issues. This is especially true for leaders in the region closest to the United States, Latin America. Drawing on previous statements and actions by Joe Biden, particularly during his time as Vice-President under President Barack Obama, this article will highlight that Biden is likely to pursue a more positive and co-operative agenda with the region compared to President Donald Trump.

Latin America Politics

Brazil – First 2022 Election Forecast

As the end of 2020 approaches, incipient forecasts about Brazil’s 2022 general election scenario start emerging. As the recent years — and even months — have insistently shown, new facts can easily move the needle towards unforeseen directions, which demands continuous monitoring and analysis. As of December 2020, however, these are the main insights for a forecast on the outcome of Brazil’s 2022 election for President.

Latin America Politics

Peru: A plot against the Anti-Corruption President?

A contract made by the Ministry of Culture and a suspected bribe began two impeachment proceedings into President Martin Vizcarra within as many months. The first set of proceedings were swift and cleared Vizcarra, the second was much more decisive. The initial impeachment may have highlighted members of Congress’ intent towards a coup, the second furthers these claims.  

Latin America Politics

Bolivia: Mas strikes back: wider implications for the region

In early October, Bolivia’s Movement towards Socialism (MAS) won a landslide victory against opponents in the state’s most general recent elections, with presidential candidate Luis Arce clasping victory in the first round.

Latin America Politics

Chile Chooses Change: What October’s Vote Means for the Country

After the outbreak of protests in 2019, calls from Chileans for significant reform to overcome what they saw as an increasingly unequal and corrupt society grew louder and louder. In response, Chile’s political parties came to an agreement, pledging to hold a plebiscite for a new constitution. Though originally scheduled for 26th April, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led this vote to be postponed until 25th October. What has the outcome of the vote been, and what changes can we expect there to be in the coming months and years as a result?

Latin America Politics

Bolivia’s (re)turn to the left: The significance of Luis Arce’s electoral victory

Candidate Luis Arce of Bolivia’s Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) appears to have claimed an impressive victory of over 54% in the 18th October general election. Arce claimed around 24% more votes than his next closest rival, the centre-left Carlos Mesa of Comunidad Ciudadana (CC). His victory represents a political U-turn for Bolivia, a vote to return to socialism and reject the centre-right politics of interim president Jeanine Áñez. Taking into account Arce’s significant victory and close relationship with controversial former Bolivian president Evo Morales, what can we expect from Bolivia and the President-Elect going forward?