Security
Climate Change, Hurricanes and US Security
The effects of climate change are being increasingly felt across the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently predicted a seventh consecutive ‘above average’ hurricane season for 2022. This comes after suggestions by scientists that previous above-average seasons had been exacerbated by anthropogenic (human-caused) climatic factors. In line with this evidence, US political actors frequently depict climate-exacerbated hurricanes as a threat to national security. However, this rhetoric is not culminating in a sufficient adaptive and mitigative policy response.
The United States’ War Against Russian Disinformation: Is the GEC Fit for Purpose?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has brought renewed focus to America’s ability to defend against the Kremlin’s separatist narratives that seek to stoke ethnolinguistic tensions amongst Russian-Speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas and Crimea. The State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC), charged with leading the U.S.’ response to disinformation, is a fledgling six-year-old department with a shifting mission, unstable staffing and a limited budget. Despite significant headwinds, the Center’s modest efforts to counter disinformation through strategic partnerships with foreign governments and media outlets, as well as its sponsorship of emerging counter-disinformation (CPD) technologies continue to hold promise for the ongoing effort to counter Russian propaganda.
The International Law of War and Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’
Moscow has refused to call its actions in Ukraine a ‘war’, instead suggesting that it is simply conducting a ‘special military operation’. Such an unyielding position is inherently steeped in the international law of warfare. By refusing to issue an official Declaration of War against Kyiv, the Kremlin is cherry-picking jus ad bellum norms in order to paint its actions as a “[humanitarian] intervention by invitation”, feeding into its perception of Ukraine as an unviable state, whilst also seeking to avert a myriad of unfavourable domestic implications which would be triggered by a State of War.
Opinion: The Attempted Assassination of Brett Kavanaugh and Far-Left Extremism
This article, following this author’s analysis on far-right extremist violence, examines and analyzes the recent uptick in political extremist violence in the United States. The recent thwarted assassination attempt on US Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh shines a spotlight on far-left extremism, a security issue long-neglected by US authorities. While it is much less deadly than either jihadism or far-right extremism, far-left violence is very real: multiple “lone-wolf” extremists inspired by anti-government sentiment have committed acts of violence in the past five years, while far-left extremist organizations have repeatedly exploited peaceful protests to wreak revolutionary havoc. Sharpening political tensions in the US – largely stemming from the overturn of Roe v. Wade and the coming midterm elections – mean further acts of far-left violence are increasingly likely.
Nigeria: An emerging strategic partner to Europe’s energy transition
Nigeria could be emerging as a key strategic partner to Europe’s energy transition, and the Franco-Nigerian relationship is at its heart.
“De-Nazification is an Absolute Must”: Moscow’s Narrative in Ukraine
Russia’s propaganda narrative of ‘de-nazifying’ Ukraine has begun to undergo a linguistic de-securitization of sorts, in parallel with the Kremlin’s focus on more minimalist objectives as part of its ‘special military operation’. Any further linguistic de-vilification of the Ukrainian side will be key to a successful negotiation process between Kyiv and Moscow, since Putin cannot afford to be seen, especially domestically, as negotiating with ‘neo-Nazis’.
Opinion: UK-EU cooperation in the Balkans
While the focus of the West has been rightly on providing military and diplomatic support to Ukraine, NATO and the European Union cannot afford to take their eyes off the Western Balkans. It is crucial to see this moment of crisis as not only an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but as a wider Russian test of the durability of the postwar European security order. As EU and Western Balkan leaders hold their summit in June, the regional stabilisation process in southeastern Europe has never been more important.
Sanctioning Russia’s science community: at what cost?
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western states, such as the US, UK and Germany have engaged in intense discussions about how to sanction Putin’s Russia most effectively. In the name of the West’s isolation strategy, numerous sanctions have been imposed, including on Russia’s science sector. A closer look at Western sanctions against the Russian scientific community suggests that the West’s isolation strategy might entail unintended effects, such as undercutting any long-term hopes for a more liberal Russian society, rolling back years of scientific collaboration on climate change and eventually, pushing Russia further into a codependent relationship with China.
The Russo-Ukrainian War and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Faltering Ceasefire
Azerbaijan has sought to exploit the world’s and Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine in order to militarily resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. As Moscow becomes extensively embroiled in its so-called ‘special military operation’ against Kiev, it is highly likely that Baku will feel emboldened enough to push further into the contested region, even if this results in the antagonisation of Russian peacekeepers.
The United Arab Emirates and Houthi Attacks: Successes and Risks
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been exposed to a recent wave of drone and missile strikes from Houthi militants in Yemen. These attacks are in retaliation to a change in the UAE’s strategy in its intervention in Yemen’s civil war. The UAE’s robust defense systems have been able to thwart Houthi attacks. However, the UAE’s continued intervention in Yemen risks provoking Houthi rebels into adopting military tactics that target civilians. The mere risk of such an attack would negatively affect the UAE’s perception of security, which is crucial for the UAE’s success as an economic powerhouse of the Middle East.
