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Asia Pacific North America

What role does North Korea play in Chinese strategy?

A week after the summit between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un ended, the steady drumbeat of analysis goes on. Much of the discussion has focused on what North Korea gained from the meeting.

Economics North America

Opinion: Trump’s trade war will be easy to lose

Trade wars are not easy nor always winnable despite what Trump suggests. Instead tariffs, once implemented, become extremely difficult to remove.

International The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead: 10-16 June 2018

ECB/Fed policy decisions. US/North Korea summit in Singapore. Colombian presidential election. All in The Week Ahead.

Asia Pacific Security

Trump vs Kim: The art of the nuclear deal

The US and North Korea are likely to attempt diplomacy for a few months, but impossible expectations and intentionally vague promises could frustrate both sides. If this causes the deal to fall through, bilateral tensions could boil over once again.

International

The future of the Iran deal: the new big three against Trump

Whether it was French President Emanuel Macron or German Chancellor Angela Merkel side by side US President Donald Trump, what seems clear is that there is change in the air for the West’s relations with Iran.

International Natural resources and energy

The Energy Briefing: Oil market implications of re-imposing sanctions on Iran

The looming threat of renewed US sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas sector could pull hundreds of thousands of barrels off the market, tightening demand balances and throwing off investment plans.

International North America Politics Security

The firing of Rex Tillerson and the future of US diplomacy

After Rex Tillerson was abruptly fired last week, all eyes are on new appointee Mike Pompeo. Trump and Pompeo are aligned on many issues, and the Iran deal in particular is at risk under the new Secretary of State. But there is still scope for Pompeo to assert himself on North Korea and Trump’s unconventional diplomacy.

Economics North America

OZY+GRI: Could this interest rate cliff-edge cripple the US economy?

Out-of-control inflation in the US is a gray rhino — a high-impact, negative occurrence that is rationalized until it is too late. The government’s response, though, could lead to a true black swan: a low-frequency, high-impact event that no one sees coming.

North America Security

Keeping Guantanamo open is a long-term strategic error

Trump’s decision to maintain the Guantanamo Bay facility risks further worsening relations with key Arab and European allies while providing a recruitment incentive for lone-wolf terrorists and other non-state actors.

Economics Europe

The U.S. blacklist of Russian oligarchs: what is the real impact?

The blacklist’s signaling effect will be significant – creating perceived risks for US or EU companies in working with listed persons and their companies.