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Ramzan Kadyrov’s unchecked power in the Caucasus

Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic, has sparked controversy with his recent acts of aggression in neighbouring Republic of Ingushetia. Despite years of human rights abuses in Chechnya, Putin has remained virtually silent, effectively condoning these actions and bolstering Kadyrov’s regime.

Middle East/North Africa Politics

US troops withdrawal from Syria and the threat of Islamic State

President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria has infuriated allies and strengthened adversaries on the ground. This has allowed Turkey to potentially eliminate a key Kurdish fighting force. This article assesses who stands to win and lose from this decision and the long-term impact for relations in the Middle East.

Asia Pacific Risk Pulse

Artificial Intelligence in the South China Sea

The South China Sea is host to a number of countries vying for control in the area. Attempting to develop new tactics and technologies to swing the balance in its favor, China may have found its key advantage – artificial intelligence (AI).

Europe Politics

Brexit Agreement delays make extreme outcomes more likely

Theresa May’s decision to delay the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons and go back to the EU seeking more concessions has increased the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. This article evaluates the probabilities of various Brexit scenarios that could take place in light of this recent development.

Europe Politics

Macedonia’s missing Prime Minister

On 13 November Nikola Gruevski, the ex-Prime Minister of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), sought asylum in Hungary after his appeal against a prison sentence for corruption failed. His escape and asylum bid will have significant consequences for both FYROM and Europe.

Latin America Politics

Conflict in Nicaragua escalates to new levels

Following the violent repression of peaceful protests during the months of April and early May, Nicaragua has seen an increase in violations of human rights and a regression of political freedoms.

Europe Politics

America done, Europe to go: What 2019 elections have in store for the EU’s future

With American elections finished, the European Union finds itself in a brightening electoral spotlight. Broad forces impacting continental politics, when viewed through a domestic lens in key countries, offer clues to what the European Parliament could look like after Europe heads to the polls in May.

Insights Sub-Saharan Africa

New alliances in the future of the Horn of Africa

After years of conflict and a tense stalemate between the two countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace deal in July that marks a new chapter in the relations between the two countries. If it is true that these are frankly positive news, the sudden change of pace seemed having taken everyone by surprise.

Europe Politics

The challenge of far-right Ukrainian militias

Ukraine’s far-right has proven active in recent months and this has led to unease. Several groups have openly expressed admiration for National Socialism and used Neo-Nazi symbols in demonstrations. Ukrainians have warily greeted the influence of these elements. This article analyses the impact of these actions.

Europe Natural resources and energy

Russia is gradually developing its Arctic LNG strategy

Due to its geographic location, natural resource extraction in the Arctic circle is strategically important for Russia’s overall energy strategy. At the same time, Russia is gradually shifting away from the traditional state-controlled gas trade through pipelines and is increasing its LNG production.