Risk Pulse
Myanmar: Southeast Asia’s Next Frontline of Jihadism?
In November 2020, Myanmar’s first explicitly Salafi-Jihadist militant group, Katibah al-Mahdi fi Bilad al-Arakan, declared jihad against Naypyidaw to avenge the persecution of Rohingya Muslims by Myanmar’s military junta. Now, Southeast Asia’s poorest nation grapples with a multidimensional humanitarian catastrophe in the aftermath of the 1 February coup d’état. Myanmar’s spiralling violence and the presence of over a million Rohingya refugees in squalid conditions in neighbouring Bangladesh has created a fertile ground for radicalisation, raising the prospect of a new jihadist front at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia.
The Implications of Colombia’s Decision to Grant Temporary Residence to Venezuelan Refugees
On 8th February, Colombian President Ivan Duque announced that Colombia would grant temporary residence to over 950,000 undocumented Venezuelan migrants in the country. This announcement constitutes a significant humanitarian measure, with the potential to have a regional and international impact. What is the situation of Venezuelan migrants in Latin America and what impact might Duque’s decision have both domestically and in broader terms?
What Israel-UAE peace agreement means for Palestine?
Citing it as a “huge breakthrough”, on the 12th of August Donald Trump announced the US-brokered “historic peace agreement” between Israel and the UAE, intended to normalise ties between the two countries. Framed as an alternative to Israeli PM Netanyahu’s annexation plan, it came as a surprise to many and set in motion a flurry of discussion.
Future of USAFRICOM: Economics over security
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo finally made his first visit to the African continent – some 18 months after taking up his position as head of the State Department. Considering the Trump administration’s obsession with tackling radical Islamist terrorism, the delay in visiting key African partners should raise questions about the US commitment to fighting the various ongoing insurgencies in the sub-Saharan Africa region.
Price War: OPEC+
After OPEC ally Russia refused to cut production, Saudi Arabia launched a price war, sending global oil prices to as low as $32 a barrel on March 9th.
Coronavirus: Threats to Global Economy
Aside from the obvious humanitarian costs associated with the coronavirus outbreak, it will inflict a severe economic toll. Given the structure of international supply chains, a Chinese slowdown affects the rest of the world. But this may no longer be a Chinese problem, as the recent surge in cases in Italy threatens the Eurozone economy directly. Global growth may have to take a temporary backseat until the crisis is resolved.
China – Coronavirus Outbreak
The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), popularly known as ‘coronavirus’ has caused widespread concern since being identified in Wuhan, China in late December.
New Pirates of the Caribbean: Growing instability in Venezuela
Globally, the threat of piracy has been tackled with impressive and effective joint international efforts. In some parts of the world, though, the threat is growing.
Fortress Europe? Protectionism and populism raise political risk in the European Union
Is Europe starting to close its doors to foreign competitors? Recent calls to establish “European Champions” in the wake of the U.S.-led trade wars and an attempt to invigorate flagging economies suggest that Europe is starting to pull up the drawbridge of Fortress Europe. Increasing populism throughout the EU, especially in core economic leaders such as Germany and France, are driving political leaders away from globalist principles and towards a more nationalistic economic strategy. As formerly staunch globalists leave center stage and attacks are made on the existing competition structure in the EU, what political risk might foreign firms face in Europe in the near and mid-term future as these political and economic protectionist movements play out?
Press freedom and political risk in Central and Eastern Europe
The continuing erosion of press freedom in Central and Eastern Europe should raise alarms among business leaders that operate in the region. Growing media consolidation, autocratic critiques of journalism and prosecutions against reporters are all undermining the ability of observers to get solid business intelligence. In the absence of a free press, political risk is rising in these European markets.
