Risk Pulse

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Africa Risk Pulse

Future of USAFRICOM: Economics over security

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo finally made his first visit to the African continent – some 18 months after taking up his position as head of the State Department. Considering the Trump administration’s obsession with tackling radical Islamist terrorism, the delay in visiting key African partners should raise questions about the US commitment to fighting the various ongoing insurgencies in the sub-Saharan Africa region. 

Economics Risk Pulse

Price War: OPEC+

After OPEC ally Russia refused to cut production, Saudi Arabia launched a price war, sending global oil prices to as low as $32 a barrel on March 9th.

China Risk Pulse

Coronavirus: Threats to Global Economy

Aside from the obvious humanitarian costs associated with the coronavirus outbreak, it will inflict a severe economic toll. Given the structure of international supply chains, a Chinese slowdown affects the rest of the world. But this may no longer be a Chinese problem, as the recent surge in cases in Italy threatens the Eurozone economy directly.  Global growth may have to take a temporary backseat until the crisis is resolved.

China Risk Pulse

China – Coronavirus Outbreak

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), popularly known as ‘coronavirus’ has caused widespread concern since being identified in Wuhan, China in late December.

Latin America Risk Pulse

New Pirates of the Caribbean: Growing instability in Venezuela

Globally, the threat of piracy has been tackled with impressive and effective joint international efforts. In some parts of the world, though, the threat is growing.

Europe Risk Pulse

Fortress Europe? Protectionism and populism raise political risk in the European Union

Is Europe starting to close its doors to foreign competitors? Recent calls to establish “European Champions” in the wake of the U.S.-led trade wars and an attempt to invigorate flagging economies suggest that Europe is starting to pull up the drawbridge of Fortress Europe. Increasing populism throughout the EU, especially in core economic leaders such as Germany and France, are driving political leaders away from globalist principles and towards a more nationalistic economic strategy. As formerly staunch globalists leave center stage and attacks are made on the existing competition structure in the EU, what political risk might foreign firms face in Europe in the near and mid-term future as these political and economic protectionist movements play out?

Europe Risk Pulse

Press freedom and political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

The continuing erosion of press freedom in Central and Eastern Europe should raise alarms among business leaders that operate in the region. Growing media consolidation, autocratic critiques of journalism and prosecutions against reporters are all undermining the ability of observers to get solid business intelligence. In the absence of a free press, political risk is rising in these European markets.

Asia Pacific Risk Pulse

Artificial Intelligence in the South China Sea

The South China Sea is host to a number of countries vying for control in the area. Attempting to develop new tactics and technologies to swing the balance in its favor, China may have found its key advantage – artificial intelligence (AI).

Risk Pulse South and Central Asia

India’s concerns over the strengthened China-Maldives relations

The Republic of Maldives is an important member of the SAARC and offers key strategic value to its allies, especially India. This article examines how a souring in relations between Malé and New Delhi, along with an unprecedented Chinese presence in the archipelago, raises geopolitical risks for India.

Middle East/North Africa Risk Pulse Security

Warning signs of instability in Egypt

The latest data from our Risk Pulse collaboration show major increases in potential instability and unrest. Social and political conditions in Egypt are ripe for another revolutionary wave.