Archive

Back to homepage
Europe Risk Pulse

Fortress Europe? Protectionism and populism raise political risk in the European Union

Is Europe starting to close its doors to foreign competitors? Recent calls to establish “European Champions” in the wake of the U.S.-led trade wars and an attempt to invigorate flagging economies suggest that Europe is starting to pull up the drawbridge of Fortress Europe. Increasing populism throughout the EU, especially in core economic leaders such as Germany and France, are driving political leaders away from globalist principles and towards a more nationalistic economic strategy. As formerly staunch globalists leave center stage and attacks are made on the existing competition structure in the EU, what political risk might foreign firms face in Europe in the near and mid-term future as these political and economic protectionist movements play out?

Europe Politics

France and Italy: Growing tensions in Europe

France recalled its ambassador to Rome this month, for the first time since 1940, in a move which exemplifies a deepening diplomatic rift with Italy. Discord has been rumbling for months. This article explains why recent relations have become strained and how they could play out during 2019.

Politics Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria: soon to be Africa’s largest democracy?

Previous elections in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, have been plagued by violence and election fraud. Amidst a backdrop of heightened insecurity fuelled by political tensions in the region, Saturday’s election will be decisive in defining Nigeria’s role on the global stage. They will also be fundamental in determining investor confidence and characterising Africa’s relationship with democracy.

Asia Pacific Security

Japan: military expansion and instability in East Asia

With an incursive China, relaxing American input and an ambiguous Trump-Kim relationship, Japan bolsters its military capabilities to face uncertain times.

Middle East/North Africa Special Reports

Lebanon: Impact of the Syrian war’s next stage

The Syrian Civil war is nearing its end game. This article, part four of a five-part series on the regional impact of this news, examines the current economic obstacles and opportunities for Lebanon.   

Europe Politics

Irish backstop: PM risks future of the Union

New assurances regarding the backstop will likely secure Brexit, but it would also inflame nationalist passions in Ireland which would threaten the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom

Middle East/North Africa Politics

Qatar: Forging Alliances in Lebanon

Following the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit in Lebanon, Qatar announced its plans to buy $500 million in government bonds to support Lebanon’s struggling economy. However, this is likely a strategic move for Qatar to increase its soft power in the country, as Qatar seeks to challenge the influence of Lebanon’s long-time financial patron, Saudi Arabia.

Europe Politics

Greece ends Macedonia name dispute

On 25 January, the Greek Parliament ratified the Prespa Agreement, thereby ending a 28-year-long dispute over the name of Greece’s northern neighbour. This heralds a new start in Greek-Macedonian relations, but it also has important international implications, including for the NATO and Russia.

Europe Security

Brexit effect on security in the UK

The downstream effects of Brexit, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, have harrowing consequences for the safety of Britons. If there is no deal on 29 March, the UK’s counterterrorism and policing operations risk being significantly burdened by borders  and hindered by restrictions on intelligence sharing.

International South and Central Asia

The India-Taiwan Treaty: India’s gateway to a knowledge economy

 India and Taiwan’s bilateral investment treaty presents a great insensitive for India to develop its human capital and transition into a knowledge economy.