Posts From Alexander Brotman

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Europe Security

Brexit effect on security in the UK

The downstream effects of Brexit, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, have harrowing consequences for the safety of Britons. If there is no deal on 29 March, the UK’s counterterrorism and policing operations risk being significantly burdened by borders  and hindered by restrictions on intelligence sharing.

Central America Politics

The risks of American military involvement in Venezuela

The world got a glimpse of National Security Advisor John Bolton’s notepad at a White House briefing this week, and it said ‘5,000 troops to Colombia.’ Is this a viable strategy to help ensure stability in Venezuela? What are the risks of the US military becoming involved in another Latin American nation where memories are still rife with US interference? Will it cause conflict with Russia?

Middle East/North Africa Politics

US troops withdrawal from Syria and the threat of Islamic State

President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria has infuriated allies and strengthened adversaries on the ground. This has allowed Turkey to potentially eliminate a key Kurdish fighting force. This article assesses who stands to win and lose from this decision and the long-term impact for relations in the Middle East.

Europe Politics

Yellow Vests and the threat to Macron’s Presidency

Protesters labelled the ‘yellow vests’ have challenged the fuel tax policy put forth by President Macron, resulting in riots and violence. What is the outlook in the near term?

Middle East/North Africa Natural resources and energy

The Special Purpose Vehicle and the future of the Iran deal

In yet another sign of the US’ waning global leadership role on the Iran nuclear deal, the EU, Russia and China have set up an alternate payment mechanism called the Special Purpose Vehicle or SPV as a means to bypass any additional US sanctions.

Europe Politics

Matteo Salvini and the risk of populism

Recent disputes between Italy’s interior minister and the EU are symptomatic of the failure of member states and the EU as an institution to live up to their ideals.

North America Politics

The US abdicates a key role at UN Human Rights Council

In another sign of its abdication of global leadership, the US has decided to withdraw from the UN human rights council, citing the latter’s hostility to Israel and favorable treatment to regimes with unsavory human rights records. What are the consequences for the world – and the Council’s future?

Europe Politics

Turkey’s elections: the long term risks of an Erdogan win

The result could be the final straw in a fractured relationship with the West that moves Turkey ever closer to Russia and illiberalism and away from its NATO allies and EU membership aspirations and might make Erdogan the most powerful leader since Ataturk.

Europe Politics

The populist coalition in Italy and its impact on European politics  

The populist coalition of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and League is likely to rattle Italian and European politics with a new approach to governance, and risks fracturing relationships with the dominant powers on the continent – namely France and Germany.

Europe Security

US antitank missiles risk escalating the Ukrainian conflict

The recent delivery of US antitank missiles to Ukraine risks escalating the ongoing conflict with Russian-backed forces in the east of the country. If not accompanied by a concrete strategy, US support also risks driving a wedge between Ukraine and the EU, generating weaknesses which Moscow can then exploit.