Tag "Donald Trump"

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Asia Pacific Security

Trump vs Kim: The art of the nuclear deal

The US and North Korea are likely to attempt diplomacy for a few months, but impossible expectations and intentionally vague promises could frustrate both sides. If this causes the deal to fall through, bilateral tensions could boil over once again.

International

The future of the Iran deal: the new big three vs Trump

Whether it was French President Emanuel Macron or German Chancellor Angela Merkel side by side US President Donald Trump, what seems clear is that there is change in the air for the West’s relations with Iran.

International Natural resources and energy

Re-imposing sanctions on Iran: oil market implications

The looming threat of renewed US sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas sector could pull hundreds of thousands of barrels off the market, tightening demand balances and throwing off investment plans.

International North America Politics Security

The firing of Rex Tillerson and the future of US diplomacy

After Rex Tillerson was abruptly fired last week, all eyes are on new appointee Mike Pompeo. Trump and Pompeo are aligned on many issues, and the Iran deal in particular is at risk under the new Secretary of State. But there is still scope for Pompeo to assert himself on North Korea and Trump’s unconventional diplomacy.

Economics North America

OZY+GRI: Could this interest rate cliff-edge cripple the US economy?

Out-of-control inflation in the US is a gray rhino — a high-impact, negative occurrence that is rationalized until it is too late. The government’s response, though, could lead to a true black swan: a low-frequency, high-impact event that no one sees coming.

North America Security

Keeping Guantanamo open is a long-term strategic error

Trump’s decision to maintain the Guantanamo Bay facility risks further worsening relations with key Arab and European allies while providing a recruitment incentive for lone-wolf terrorists and other non-state actors.

Economics Europe

The U.S. blacklist of Russian oligarchs: what is the real impact?

The blacklist’s signaling effect will be significant – creating perceived risks for US or EU companies in working with listed persons and their companies.

Asia Pacific Security

Gains from inter-Korean Olympic diplomacy at risk without U.S. engagement

To extend the temporary Olympics thaw into a long-term opportunity, the U.S. and South Korea have to work together. However, it seems likely that Seoul and Washington will remain divided on the path ahead.

Economics North America

Opportunity slips away as disagreements over NAFTA continue

President Donald Trump will face major decisions around trade in 2018, especially with regard to the 24-year old North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA).

North America Politics

Will the US midterms spell the end of #MAGA?

Could Trump’s low approval ratings and legislative shortcomings clear the path to a Democrat majority in Congress and derail his vision for America?