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Europe Politics

Recovery from Covid-19 in Eastern Partnership Countries Faces Political Hurdles

With the support of the European Union, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced in December a scaling up of its financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. However, potential for economic recovery from the pandemic in the region is undermined by EU marginalisation of issues in corruption and Russian subversion capabilities. It is unlikely that sustainable private-sector growth will be realised until the EBRD fiscal approach is complemented with a strategy to address these political challenges.

Europe Politics

Belarus: Democratic awakening in stalemate

While Belarusian strongman Lukashenko has held onto power since the highly contested August 2020 presidential election, public discontent with the regime has persisted in the face of police brutality and human rights abuses. As the West increases sanctions on Belarusian officials and the Kremlin’s support transforms into pressure, it is critical to assess whether Europe’s last authoritarian stronghold will survive in 2021.

Insights Politics

The Eastern Partnership May Need Reform Given Change in US Foreign Policy

The crisis in Belarus and the outbreak of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh are testing the European Union’s capability to act as a source of regional security. Political instability, violations of human rights and ethnic conflict within members of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) is calling into question Brussels’s foreign policy strategy to further integrate six former Soviet states with the EU.

Eurasia Politics

Russia’s East is Fed Up

Fresh from a national referendum allowing for the continuation of President Vladimir Putin’s rule, Moscow capitalized on the renewed political mandate by arresting a troublesome regional governor. What followed next was a near unprecedented backlash from the inhabitants of the Khabarovsk region in Russia’s East, with 20-60,000 initial protestors getting involved in the single longest-running protest in the history of the Russian Federation. These protests represent the latest displays of a long-standing resentment of Moscow’s meddling in the east of the country, while also serving as an indictment of the failings of Russian federalism.

Europe Security

Belarus and Russia: Will Putin Back Lukashenko or Watch his Downfall?

Belarus and Russia have been experiencing a deterioration in their relationship for years now. However, the current protests sweeping Belarus in light of the elections of August 2020, which controversially found President Lukashenko to have secured 80% of the vote, could prove to be a turning point for the already tenuous alliance between the two former Soviet states. President Putin has hitherto been cautiously supportive of Lukashenko to the extent that Moscow is still able to exercise flexibility of action. Examining current and previous developments between the two states in light of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, the best option for Putin remains to refrain from interference for the time being. 

Europe Insights

Belarusian Protests: Russia’s Reluctance

Russia seems unlikely to intervene in anti-Lukashenko protests in Belarus, despite what most Western and Russian news sources report. Instead, they reluctantly stand on the sidelines, unwilling to oust the President, but unwilling to support him either.

Eurasia Europe

Eurasia: Is Belarus the next Crimea?

Russia tries to tighten its grip while simultaneously decreasing the resulting budget burden. On the other hand, Belarus is not willing to sacrifice its sovereignty but is acutely aware of its economic dependence on Russia.

Economics Europe Technology and infrastructure

Belarus on the cusp of a (tech) revolution?

New legislation puts Belarus at the forefront of the cryptocurrency boom – and shows the government’s commitment to attracting long term IT investment.

Europe Security

The EU’s Eastern partnership summit: pragmatism and realpolitik

On 24 November, the 5th Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit took place in Brussels. Security issues dominated the summit, while EU membership was off the table.

Economics Europe

Belarus will not be the “next Ukraine”

The weak status of Belarus’ opposition and the economic interest found in maintaining Russian interests indicate the country will remain stable.