Latin America
Chile Chooses Change: What October’s Vote Means for the Country
After the outbreak of protests in 2019, calls from Chileans for significant reform to overcome what they saw as an increasingly unequal and corrupt society grew louder and louder. In response, Chile’s political parties came to an agreement, pledging to hold a plebiscite for a new constitution. Though originally scheduled for 26th April, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led this vote to be postponed until 25th October. What has the outcome of the vote been, and what changes can we expect there to be in the coming months and years as a result?
Bolivia’s (re)turn to the left: The significance of Luis Arce’s electoral victory
Candidate Luis Arce of Bolivia’s Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) appears to have claimed an impressive victory of over 54% in the 18th October general election. Arce claimed around 24% more votes than his next closest rival, the centre-left Carlos Mesa of Comunidad Ciudadana (CC). His victory represents a political U-turn for Bolivia, a vote to return to socialism and reject the centre-right politics of interim president Jeanine Áñez. Taking into account Arce’s significant victory and close relationship with controversial former Bolivian president Evo Morales, what can we expect from Bolivia and the President-Elect going forward?
IMF Money? Colombia’s Listening!
After a year of bad news due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions, Colombia’s fortune is finally improving: at the end of September, the IMF expanded Colombia’s credit line from USD 10.8 billion to USD 17.2 billion.
As Iván Duque completes two years as President, Colombia faces a new wave of protests
Like many other Latin American countries, Colombia’s domestic stability depends on a wide variety of factors and one event can trigger a significant wave of social unrest. We saw this for instance in Brazil in 2013 and 2014 and in Chile in 2019, when both President Dilma Rousseff and President Sebastián Piñera, respectively, raised bus and train fares, sparking protests all over the country. These small events are catalysts of something much bigger. After the killing of a civilian by police officers, demonstrations are once again erupting all over the country and do not seem to be solely focused on police brutality.
Argentina: A Second Falklands Brewing?
The Falklands are once more set to be the centre of a dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom if Argentina does not recover from its economic woes. Fears of possible new tensions rise with a president that is seeking to divert attention and use the Falklands to refocus the Argentine mindset.
Colombia: President Duque at risk of giving ground to opposition amid ongoing crises
With internal pressure mounting, Colombia’s president Iván Duque faces serious challenges halfway through his presidency. Recent polls suggest that domestic support is decreasing, leaving his party’s dominance in peril. If Duque can’t solve the ongoing domestic crises, the opposition is likely to gain ground before the elections in 2022.
Crisis besets Venezuela: A failing regime?
Economic downturn, trading tensions with the USA, and international sanctions have all begun to play a role in the destruction of the Maduro regime. The possible results of this are civil unrest, economic collapse and ultimately, a failed state.
Brazil: How is South America’s biggest economy poised to behave?
Last week Brazil’s COPOM (Committee for Monetary Policy) met to discuss the current economic environment, not only in Brazil but around the world. The meeting had one overall result, which was to maintain current interest rates. The country’s Taxa Selic will stay at 2% p.a. Although this event might not seem newsworthy, it tells us a great deal about the recovery of the South American economy.
Venezuela: The Risk to the Maduro Regime’s Stability
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Moros and several top-level officials in Venezuela were indicted on charges of “narco-terrorism” by U.S. Attorney General William Barr on Thursday the 26th of March, 2020. This indictment follows a months-long escalation of tensions between Caracas and Washington D.C.
Bolsonaro’s Environmental Policy: An Increasing Risk
President Jair Bolsonaro’s inauguration in January marked Brazil’s entry into the ranks of nations recently electing far-right leadership. In the first five months of his term, Bolsonaro’s r has drawn particular ire for altering environmental policies.
