Latin America
Alex Saab and the State of Corruption in Venezeula
The Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro has been accused of turning a blind eye to or engaging actively in corruption for both the personal enrichment of state officials and as part of sanction-dodging efforts. Among other individuals linked to corruption by the Maduro government, in June 2020 Colombian national Alex Saab was arrested in Cape Verde in connection with an Interpol Red Notice concerning money laundering. Now, 6 months after his arrest, it seems likely that he will be extradited to the US. How significant is Saab to the Maduro government and what impact might his extradition have?
Cry for me, Argentina: COVID-19 and Economic Woe
2020 cannot be described as a good year for Argentina. Already struggling with high inflation and a sovereign debt of over $300 billion, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic confronted the Argentine government with new financial drains and economic hurdles. Faced with this crisis, Argentina’s economy has undergone a severe contraction. Though Argentina’s economic situation is, along with that of many other countries affected by the pandemic, expected to rebound in 2021, indications are not positive for a long-term indication in the country’s economic situation.
Forever War: The Unfulfilled Peace in Colombia
Despite the signing of a peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla organization in June 2016, Colombia continues to struggle with armed violence by far-left guerrilla groups including the ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and FARC dissidents, as well as by right wing paramilitaries and criminal cartels. The causes of this continued violence are numerous and range from the attitude of the Duque administration towards the peace agreement, to the situation in neighbouring Venezuela.
Latin America – Russia’s Game in 2021: an Outlook
Latin America is at a turning point and there will be a lot at stake for Russia’s influence building in the region in 2021. The instability created by an unprecedented recession and an increased political polarisation in what promises to be a hectic electoral year as well as a more active US foreign policy after Trump’s neglect will probably increase Moscow’s appetite for the subcontinent.
Rumours of reform: the likelihood and consequences of currency reform in Cuba
Indications have been growing that the Cuban government intends to move forward with sweeping reforms to the country’s currency and exchange rate systems. These reforms will certainly involve the unification of the country’s current dual currency system. Nevertheless, such a change is easier said than done and will almost certainly be painful in the short term.
Crisis in Peru: The interplay between COVID and Corruption
Peru is in the throes of a political crisis following the outbreak of protests after the impeachment of now former President Martín Vizcarra, ostensibly due to corruption during his time as Governor of the province of Moquegua between 2011 and 2014. The protestors see Vizcarra’s impeachment as politically motivated, carried out to halt the anti-graft initiatives he sought to implement; the protests have also been inflamed by alleged police brutality that led to the deaths of 2 demonstrators. It is likely that some concession by the government will be made in order to defuse this tension.
What a Biden Presidency Means for Latin America
With his position as President-Elect all but guaranteed, it is important that leaders and policymakers grasp the policies and stances Joe Biden is likely to take on a myriad of issues. This is especially true for leaders in the region closest to the United States, Latin America. Drawing on previous statements and actions by Joe Biden, particularly during his time as Vice-President under President Barack Obama, this article will highlight that Biden is likely to pursue a more positive and co-operative agenda with the region compared to President Donald Trump.
Brazil – First 2022 Election Forecast
As the end of 2020 approaches, incipient forecasts about Brazil’s 2022 general election scenario start emerging. As the recent years — and even months — have insistently shown, new facts can easily move the needle towards unforeseen directions, which demands continuous monitoring and analysis. As of December 2020, however, these are the main insights for a forecast on the outcome of Brazil’s 2022 election for President.
Peru: A plot against the Anti-Corruption President?
A contract made by the Ministry of Culture and a suspected bribe began two impeachment proceedings into President Martin Vizcarra within as many months. The first set of proceedings were swift and cleared Vizcarra, the second was much more decisive. The initial impeachment may have highlighted members of Congress’ intent towards a coup, the second furthers these claims.
Bolivia: Mas strikes back: wider implications for the region
In early October, Bolivia’s Movement towards Socialism (MAS) won a landslide victory against opponents in the state’s most general recent elections, with presidential candidate Luis Arce clasping victory in the first round.
