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Europe Politics

Greece ends Macedonia name dispute

On 25 January, the Greek Parliament ratified the Prespa Agreement, thereby ending a 28-year-long dispute over the name of Greece’s northern neighbour. This heralds a new start in Greek-Macedonian relations, but it also has important international implications, including for the NATO and Russia.

Europe Security

Brexit effect on security in the UK

The downstream effects of Brexit, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, have harrowing consequences for the safety of Britons. If there is no deal on 29 March, the UK’s counterterrorism and policing operations risk being significantly burdened by borders  and hindered by restrictions on intelligence sharing.

Europe Politics

How can Britain escape the Brexit impasse?

With less than seventy days between now and the 29th March, time is running out to reach a deal. Precedent shows that Theresa May isn’t willing to compromise or adopt cross-party consensus, and the risk of a Corbyn government shirks her party away from an election. Parliament taking control or a referendum are the most likely solutions to the impasse.

Europe Politics

Will inflexibility on Brexit undermine the EU?

The UK’s current struggles over Brexit have greatly increased the likelihood of a hard exit from the EU, an outcome no one wants. The EU has adamantly refused to renegotiate any part of the Brexit agreement, which seems likely to hurt the EU’s legitimacy in the long term.

Europe Politics

Serbia takes to the streets

Since November 30, anti-government protests have been held across Serbia, including seven in the capital city of Belgrade. Thousands of people have attended. Previous protest campaigns against the current government have failed to bring real change. Will these protests be any different?

Europe Risk Pulse

Press freedom and political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

The continuing erosion of press freedom in Central and Eastern Europe should raise alarms among business leaders that operate in the region. Growing media consolidation, autocratic critiques of journalism and prosecutions against reporters are all undermining the ability of observers to get solid business intelligence. In the absence of a free press, political risk is rising in these European markets.

Europe Security

Kosovo: Creating a full army out of its security force

Last December, the Government of Kosovo declared that it is turning the Kosovo Security Force into a fully fledged army. This development greatly concerns Serbia, which still maintains that Albanian-dominated Kosovo is Serbian territory.  

Europe Politics

Brexit: Will Labour launch a vote of no confidence?

The previous two years have taught that anything can emerge from the mire of Brexit, but it does appear that a Labour motion of no confidence will be little more than a last ditch (and ultimately futile) effort to exert its influence over Brexit from the increasingly distant opposition benches. While Labour would be apt to measure the risks and advantages of a general election, it is far more likely that a no confidence bid will be counted by all observers as a symbolic show of discontent by an opposition which has had virtually no impact on the Brexit process to date.

Eurasia Europe Security

The Ukraine conflict in 2019: Prospects for de-escalation look remote

It has been almost five years since the signing of the Minsk Agreements, which represent the only existing conduit for the gradual de-escalation of this conflict. Increasing ceasefire violations and obstruction of monitoring suggest that de-escalation remains unlikely.

Europe Politics

Brexit Agreement delays make extreme outcomes more likely

Theresa May’s decision to delay the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons and go back to the EU seeking more concessions has increased the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. This article evaluates the probabilities of various Brexit scenarios that could take place in light of this recent development.