Europe
Viktor Orbán and risks of suspension from European Parliament
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party was suspended with immediate effect in March from the EPP centre-right bloc in the European Parliament. Brussels is taking a stand, but what are the risks to relations between the EU and newer member states like Hungary?
Ukraine: Presidential Elections 2019
Ukrainians will cast their vote in a historic Presidential election on Sunday. Poroshenko and Zelensky are the main contenders.
A Balkan ‘Spring’ or Protests Doomed to Fail?
Since late 2018, the main opposition parties in Albania, Montenegro and Serbia have been boycotting their respective parliaments. Public protests have supported this, initiating a Balkan ‘spring’. Will the protests succeed or fail?
Italy Embraces Belt and Road Initiative
On March 23, Italy formally endorsed China’s landmark Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The new arrangement risks riling fellow EU members, the United States and the rest of the G7. It could also see a seismic shift in China’s Europe strategy. Xi Jinping’s increasingly ubiquitous reinvigoration of the Silk Road will result in further involvement in European politics, business and defence for years to come, with wide-ranging repercussions. Italy’s decision places itself in an invidious position and will meet disapproval from traditional allies.
European Union: Renaissance or Sturm und Drang
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a European Renaissance. This article examines the potential business risks this proposal portends for foreign investors.
Italy: Likelihood of general elections
The recent regional elections in Abruzzo and Sardinia have highlighted the contrasting political fortunes of the two populist parties that make up Italy’s coalition government.
Russia: Michael Calvey’s shock arrest
Renowned investment mogul, Michael Calvey, is currently held in pretrial detention by Moscow authorities.
America and Europe: Growing differences over Iran
The United States’ and Poland’s co-hosted conference in Europe is a controversial event. It has united some American allies around President Donald Trump’s aggressive anti-Iran posturing while alienating some others.
Fortress Europe? Protectionism and populism raise political risk in the European Union
Is Europe starting to close its doors to foreign competitors? Recent calls to establish “European Champions” in the wake of the U.S.-led trade wars and an attempt to invigorate flagging economies suggest that Europe is starting to pull up the drawbridge of Fortress Europe. Increasing populism throughout the EU, especially in core economic leaders such as Germany and France, are driving political leaders away from globalist principles and towards a more nationalistic economic strategy. As formerly staunch globalists leave center stage and attacks are made on the existing competition structure in the EU, what political risk might foreign firms face in Europe in the near and mid-term future as these political and economic protectionist movements play out?
France and Italy: Growing tensions in Europe
France recalled its ambassador to Rome this month, for the first time since 1940, in a move which exemplifies a deepening diplomatic rift with Italy. Discord has been rumbling for months. This article explains why recent relations have become strained and how they could play out during 2019.
