Europe
European Union: Renaissance or Sturm und Drang
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a European Renaissance. This article examines the potential business risks this proposal portends for foreign investors.
Italy: Likelihood of general elections
The recent regional elections in Abruzzo and Sardinia have highlighted the contrasting political fortunes of the two populist parties that make up Italy’s coalition government.
Russia: Michael Calvey’s shock arrest
Renowned investment mogul, Michael Calvey, is currently held in pretrial detention by Moscow authorities.
America and Europe: Growing differences over Iran
The United States’ and Poland’s co-hosted conference in Europe is a controversial event. It has united some American allies around President Donald Trump’s aggressive anti-Iran posturing while alienating some others.
Fortress Europe? Protectionism and populism raise political risk in the European Union
Is Europe starting to close its doors to foreign competitors? Recent calls to establish “European Champions” in the wake of the U.S.-led trade wars and an attempt to invigorate flagging economies suggest that Europe is starting to pull up the drawbridge of Fortress Europe. Increasing populism throughout the EU, especially in core economic leaders such as Germany and France, are driving political leaders away from globalist principles and towards a more nationalistic economic strategy. As formerly staunch globalists leave center stage and attacks are made on the existing competition structure in the EU, what political risk might foreign firms face in Europe in the near and mid-term future as these political and economic protectionist movements play out?
France and Italy: Growing tensions in Europe
France recalled its ambassador to Rome this month, for the first time since 1940, in a move which exemplifies a deepening diplomatic rift with Italy. Discord has been rumbling for months. This article explains why recent relations have become strained and how they could play out during 2019.
Irish backstop: PM risks future of the Union
New assurances regarding the backstop will likely secure Brexit, but it would also inflame nationalist passions in Ireland which would threaten the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom
Greece ends Macedonia name dispute
On 25 January, the Greek Parliament ratified the Prespa Agreement, thereby ending a 28-year-long dispute over the name of Greece’s northern neighbour. This heralds a new start in Greek-Macedonian relations, but it also has important international implications, including for the NATO and Russia.
Brexit effect on security in the UK
The downstream effects of Brexit, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, have harrowing consequences for the safety of Britons. If there is no deal on 29 March, the UK’s counterterrorism and policing operations risk being significantly burdened by borders and hindered by restrictions on intelligence sharing.
How can Britain escape the Brexit impasse?
With less than seventy days between now and the 29th March, time is running out to reach a deal. Precedent shows that Theresa May isn’t willing to compromise or adopt cross-party consensus, and the risk of a Corbyn government shirks her party away from an election. Parliament taking control or a referendum are the most likely solutions to the impasse.
