Europe
Yellow Vests and the threat to Macron’s Presidency
Protesters labelled the ‘yellow vests’ have challenged the fuel tax policy put forth by President Macron, resulting in riots and violence. What is the outlook in the near term?
Why is there a Brexit flare-up over Gibraltar?
During the United Kingdom’s negotiations of leaving the European Union, questions about Gibraltar have often been superseded by concerns about the Northern Irish border and its backstop agreement. Why have tensions suddenly flared in recent weeks and what does it mean for the Brexit process?
A true European army is coming
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent call for the creation of a ‘true European army’ was echoed in dramatic fashion by German chancellor Angela Merkel in mid-November and has brought the debate over a shared European military back into the public eye. This may mark a watershed moment in European politics.
Ukraine-Hungary: Beyond passports and languages
Relations between Hungary and Ukraine are at a low point. Diplomats have been expelled from both countries following arguments of Ukraine’s language law and Hungary’s issuance of passports in Ukraine. The dispute has implications that go far beyond the two countries’ bilateral relations.
Climate Change: Heating up Arctic competition
Melting sea ice is revitalizing the Arctic’s geopolitical importance. Russia is proactively developing the area with the help of the Chinese government and has more bases than any other nation. Western states are looking to respond and economic competition has already begun, further militarization is likely to follow suit.
Can Kosovo’s tariffs on Bosnia and Serbia last?
On 21st November, Kosovo imposed a 100% tariff on all goods produced in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, increasing the 10% tariffs that were imposed on 6th November. The tariffs contradict the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) of which all three territories are signatories. Kosovo has issued similar tariffs before and regularly claims that its products are not treated equally in other CEFTA members’ markets, but it is also seeking to use tariffs for political purposes.
Sea of Azov: Ticking timebomb?
After a period of relatively consistent, low-intensity fighting in eastern Ukraine, 2018 has brought new developments with the opening of the Kerch Strait Bridge in the Sea of Azov. With the additional maritime element in Russia’s strategy, further destabilization of the region can be expected.
Serbian visas as diplomacy
Serbia has ensured that its passport holders have visa-free access to a wide range of countries, from Belarus to Indonesia. Many new visa waiver agreements have been signed in the past 5 years, but the most recent agreement, with Iran, was cancelled after one year alone. The failure of the Iran agreement highlights the unique role that visas play in Serbian diplomacy.
The threat to Russia from Islamic State returnees
The threat posed by Russian speaking fighters who travelled to fight under the Islamic State in Syria presents a complicated problem for both Russia and its allies to address. Just like its Western counterparts, Russia is worried that these returnees will mount deadly attacks on the country’s soil.
Nikol Pashinyan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Earlier in 2018, Nikol Pashinyan made a historic entrance into the helm of Armenian politics after Serzh Sargsyan resigned in the face of large protests. While Pashinyan is making continued efforts to improve Armenia’s image abroad, an important question remains about his leadership towards the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.
