Economics
The Week Ahead: 4 – 10 March 2018
Trump announces new steel and aluminum tariffs. Brexit prompts conflict over Ireland status. FARC competes in legislative elections. New presidential elections in Sierra Leone. All in the Week Ahead.
OZY+GRI: Is this how the next global recession begins?
Amid the second-longest bull market in U.S. history, talk of an inevitable recession is often met with “this time is different” arguments. And this time is different – but not the way you think.
OZY+GRI: Could this interest rate cliff-edge cripple the US economy?
Out-of-control inflation in the US is a gray rhino — a high-impact, negative occurrence that is rationalized until it is too late. The government’s response, though, could lead to a true black swan: a low-frequency, high-impact event that no one sees coming.
OZY+GRI: Will the powerful German economy break up the EU?
Germany’s trade surplus is viewed with resentment across the EU due to the implied — and in some cases, tangible — economic imbalance that benefits Deutschland über alles and could lead to the dissolution of Europe’s grand experiment.
Exclusive Interview: Alfa Bank’s Chief Economist on the outlook for Russia
Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist and Head of Macro Insights at Alfa Bank, offers her expert view on Russia’s economic outlook – and warns that the market may be incorrectly pricing sovereign risks.
Could China overtake the the US in AI development?
US-based companies have long been considered industry-leaders in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). As the Chinese government prioritizes state support for AI development, will the US be left behind?
Will Saudi Arabia’s latest megacity venture deliver on the hype?
In the process of diversifying its economy to become less reliant on its oil reserves, Saudi Arabia recently announced the launch of a megacity and special economic zone called Neom. GRI assesses its potential.
Under the Radar: Ethiopia’s economic growth offers opportunities and challenges
Ethiopia is booming, with manufacturing, energy and infrastructure leading the way. But the weak private sector and cracks in the federalist political model pose risks to further growth and investment.
China’s Trans-Eurasia trade routes: Outlook for 2018
An excerpt from our Belt and Road Initiative: Risk Insights report for 2018. This section covers rail and multimodal trade through Eurasia.
The U.S. blacklist of Russian oligarchs: what is the real impact?
The blacklist’s signaling effect will be significant – creating perceived risks for US or EU companies in working with listed persons and their companies.
