Economics
Theresa May’s evolving Brexit strategy
The transition agreement between the UK and EU means that although the UK will officially leave the EU in March 2019, it will still remain in the customs union and single market for another 21 months. The UK’s concessions are indicative of the government’s broader negotiating strategy with the EU.
Foreign aid and strategic competition in the South Pacific
On February 26, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck 35 kilometres underneath the Southern Highlands in Papua New Guinea, causing at least fifty deaths. An Australian Air Force plane carrying relief supplies landed five days later amid criticism that aid had been too slow to arrive.
The Week Ahead: 4 – 10 March 2018
Trump announces new steel and aluminum tariffs. Brexit prompts conflict over Ireland status. FARC competes in legislative elections. New presidential elections in Sierra Leone. All in the Week Ahead.
OZY+GRI: Is this how the next global recession begins?
Amid the second-longest bull market in U.S. history, talk of an inevitable recession is often met with “this time is different” arguments. And this time is different – but not the way you think.
OZY+GRI: Could this interest rate cliff-edge cripple the US economy?
Out-of-control inflation in the US is a gray rhino — a high-impact, negative occurrence that is rationalized until it is too late. The government’s response, though, could lead to a true black swan: a low-frequency, high-impact event that no one sees coming.
OZY+GRI: Will the powerful German economy break up the EU?
Germany’s trade surplus is viewed with resentment across the EU due to the implied — and in some cases, tangible — economic imbalance that benefits Deutschland über alles and could lead to the dissolution of Europe’s grand experiment.
Exclusive Interview: Alfa Bank’s Chief Economist on the outlook for Russia
Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist and Head of Macro Insights at Alfa Bank, offers her expert view on Russia’s economic outlook – and warns that the market may be incorrectly pricing sovereign risks.
Could China overtake the the US in AI development?
US-based companies have long been considered industry-leaders in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). As the Chinese government prioritizes state support for AI development, will the US be left behind?
Will Saudi Arabia’s latest megacity venture deliver on the hype?
In the process of diversifying its economy to become less reliant on its oil reserves, Saudi Arabia recently announced the launch of a megacity and special economic zone called Neom. GRI assesses its potential.
Under the Radar: Ethiopia’s economic growth offers opportunities and challenges
Ethiopia is booming, with manufacturing, energy and infrastructure leading the way. But the weak private sector and cracks in the federalist political model pose risks to further growth and investment.
