Posts From Leo Kabouche

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Economics Natural resources and energy North America Politics

The Energy Briefing: AMLO’s nationalist agenda clouds future for Mexico’s energy sector

Leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s victory casts a shadow over the future of Mexico’s ongoing energy reform. Will the country’s new preident find the right balance between pragmatism and ideology?

Natural resources and energy South and Central Asia

The Energy Briefing: Despite Caspian Sea agreement, obstacles to Trans-Caspian pipeline remain

On August 12, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan reached an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. In particular, the treaty removes a legal barrier to building a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, several obstacles to the construction of the pipeline remain.

Europe Natural resources and energy

The Energy Briefing: Will US gas exports to Europe surge?

As US LNG exports have increased, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have viewed them as a way to decrease Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas. However, their ultimate success will be determined by market dynamics. At the moment, these dynamics generally favor Gazprom’s continued dominance.

Middle East/North Africa Natural resources and energy Security Special Reports

The Energy Briefing: The never-ending battle for Libya’s Oil Crescent

The competition for the control of state revenues remains tense as Haftar’s Libyan National Army intensified its attempts to seize key institutions ahead of December 2018 elections. Although oil production increased in 2017, continuing insecurity due to armed groups still largely constrain Libya’s oil potential.

Middle East/North Africa Politics Security Special Reports

Special report: The impact of Iraq’s 2018 parliamentary elections

On 12 May, Iraqis chose their representatives for Parliament. In an environment influenced by the four-year conflict with the Islamic State and the fragmentation of politics, these elections are a critical test.

International Natural resources and energy

The Energy Briefing: Oil market implications of re-imposing sanctions on Iran

The looming threat of renewed US sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas sector could pull hundreds of thousands of barrels off the market, tightening demand balances and throwing off investment plans.

Natural resources and energy North America

Assessing the Trump doctrine of “energy dominance”

If the US is to wield energy as a weapon, it will be perceived as an unreliable supplier, and risk moving at cross-purposes with the system of free and open energy markets that it has promoted for decades.

Politics Risk Pulse

Explaining Erdogan’s persistent popularity

Since the failed coup in 2016, Erdogan has tightened his hold on all aspects of political, social and legal institutions and life in Turkey. Yet the latest data shows he remains very popular with a large part of the population.

Politics Sub-Saharan Africa

The Gulf crisis echoes in Africa

The Qatari Emir’s visit to West Africa underlines the continued strategic importance of Africa in the ongoing Gulf crisis.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Turkey’s 2018 risk outlook

Turkey is likely to face unrest, foreign policy tensions, an unsettled economy, and terrorist threats in 2018. But that won’t stop Erdogan from cementing his authoritarian trajectory and expanding regional influence.