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Middle East/North Africa Security

Iran partially exits the nuclear deal: is war on the horizon?

President Trump’s most recent sanctions and deployment of an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf has raised fears about another US war in the Middle-East. Iran’s decision to cease compliance with key parts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) intensifies anxieties.  

China Economics

China-US: A Trade War of Attrition?

On 10 May, 2019, the Trump administration raised tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of imports from China. This escalation of events caught observers by surprise. The Chinese side has retaliated with tariffs on American goods.

Africa Politics

South Africa elections: Opportunities and challenges

South Africa’s recent general election has bucked the international trend towards populism by consolidating its democracy at the political centre.

Europe Security

Europe’ data security dilemma: the Huawei debate

Last month, Huawei offered an anti-spy agreement to Germany, in order to ease the data security concerns and be able to participate in the country’s 5G mobile networks. However, without the same level of guarantee from the Chinese government, it is unlikely that the concerns could be eliminated. What would be the next step for European countries on this matter?

Europe Politics

Brexit Party doesn’t mean Brexit: 2 graphs that tell the real story

Much noise is being made about the Brexit Party’s rapid ‘success’ in European election polling. The media are throwing around alarmist language like ‘terrifying’, ‘surge’, and ‘showdown’. All of their commentary is fundamentally misleading.

Europe Politics

Where do the Yellow Vests stand?

More violence has broken out in France over President Macron’s proposed reforms. Will the Yellow Vests movement fade or is the unrest set to continue? Much depends on Macron’s image and the movement he is able to put together. 

Eurasia Europe

Eurasia: Is Belarus the next Crimea?

Russia tries to tighten its grip while simultaneously decreasing the resulting budget burden. On the other hand, Belarus is not willing to sacrifice its sovereignty but is acutely aware of its economic dependence on Russia.

Europe Insights

Eastern Ukraine: Is reintegration still a realistic prospect?

On 24 April, Russia signed a decree allowing residents of rebel-controlled areas of Eastern Ukraine to apply for Russian passports. This was the latest in a series of steps making the reintegration of the Donbass less likely.

China Economics

China: Will the economy absorb shocks from US trade dispute?

The US-China trade war recently escalated with Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports. As trade talks fail to overcome political barriers between both countries, China is feeling immediate economic pressure. 

Middle East/North Africa Security

Syria’s Idlib: Limited offensive to enforce Sochi Accord

Bashar al-Assad’s regime started an aerial assault against rebel-held areas in northwest Syria in late April. The purpose of the offensive is capturing the M4 and M5 highways from Aleppo to Hama and Lattakia, as agreed in Sochi.