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Africa Security

Libya – The Impacts of the Ceasefire on Libyan Politics

On 21 August 2020, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli and its rival administration controlling Eastern Libya announced their commitment to a ceasefire and to finding a political solution to the conflict that has ravaged the country since 2011. So far, the truce has been successful in preventing further violence. However, it has opened the door to political infighting within both parties which could compromise the overall inter-Libyan dialogue. 

Europe Natural resources and energy

Eastern Mediterranean: too small of a bathtub for two swimmers

While the two protagonists Greece and Turkey are currently in dispute over economic rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, other stakeholders within the region continue to complicate their strained relationship. As this issue develops, wider implications emerge well beyond the region, creating both opportunities and hazards

Europe Natural resources and energy

Greece and Turkey: Energy Security Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean

Overlapping maritime claims and strategic energy interests have resulted in a clash between Greek and Turkish naval ships in the waters of Cyprus, mutual public hostilities. The high tensions and decades of antagonism between the two, however, are unlikely to result in open warfare. The recently discovered Eastern Mediterranean gas and oil fields, have inspired a powerful energy alliance between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which challenges Turkey’s energy hub ambitions.

Europe Under The Radar

EU: Migrant crisis anew?

A mass gathering of migrants at the Greek-Turkish border has brought back memories of the refugee crisis of 2015. Although the EU is reacting differently in 2020, the underlying causes and potential implications remain the same.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Water Shortage and Unrest in Iraq

Iraq is experiencing high youth unemployment rates and an ongoing protest movement motivated by socio-political grievances. The lack of water is contributing to unrest in the country.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Russia grows impatient with Turkey in Syria

On August 2, Syria’s warring factions announced a ceasefire to fighting in the last remaining stronghold of Idlib. It did not last long as three days later fighting resumed between the government and its opposition. 

Middle East/North Africa Politics

Energy and security in the Eastern Mediterranean

The discovery of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Levant Basin has created new regional security dynamics. The quest for power and influence hinders energy and economic cooperation.

Middle East/North Africa Special Reports

Turkey: Impact of the Syrian war’s next stage

The Syrian Civil war is nearing its end game. This article, part five of a five-part series on the regional impact of this news, examines the current economic obstacles and opportunities for Turkey.

Middle East/North Africa Security

UAE’s relations with Somalia flounder over Qatar

Since the election of the new Somali President in 2017, the country’s relationship with the UAE has deteriorated steadily. The UAE risks undoing its record of progress in the Horn of Africa.

Europe Risk Pulse

Press freedom and political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

The continuing erosion of press freedom in Central and Eastern Europe should raise alarms among business leaders that operate in the region. Growing media consolidation, autocratic critiques of journalism and prosecutions against reporters are all undermining the ability of observers to get solid business intelligence. In the absence of a free press, political risk is rising in these European markets.