Tag "Iran"
US troops withdrawal from Syria and the threat of Islamic State
President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria has infuriated allies and strengthened adversaries on the ground. This has allowed Turkey to potentially eliminate a key Kurdish fighting force. This article assesses who stands to win and lose from this decision and the long-term impact for relations in the Middle East.
Serbian visas as diplomacy
Serbia has ensured that its passport holders have visa-free access to a wide range of countries, from Belarus to Indonesia. Many new visa waiver agreements have been signed in the past 5 years, but the most recent agreement, with Iran, was cancelled after one year alone. The failure of the Iran agreement highlights the unique role that visas play in Serbian diplomacy.
The Special Purpose Vehicle and the future of the Iran deal
In yet another sign of the US’ waning global leadership role on the Iran nuclear deal, the EU, Russia and China have set up an alternate payment mechanism called the Special Purpose Vehicle or SPV as a means to bypass any additional US sanctions.
Sanctions, oil, and the emerging China-Russia-Iran axis
Although China has backpedalled on proposed tariffs on U.S. crude imports, the move is indicative of its need to diversify sources and steps may now be taken to enable China to play the oil card in the future – including imports from Iran despite sanctions, and drawing closer to Russia.
Why Iran and Syria still need each other
Bashar al-Assad’s reliance on Tehran might have at some point upset the balance of power between the Iran and Syria, but recent developments, most notably the US withdrawing from the nuclear deal, have emphasized the significance of the alliance for both countries.
Iran’s waning involvement in the South Caucasus
With the JCPOA finalized in 2015, Iran seemed to finally build on its potential to become a shaping actor in the South Caucasus. Yet the scrapping of the JCPOA in April 2018 threatens to disillusion those who were optimistic about new trading and investment opportunities. Under growing pressure, the region seems to be neglected again by Tehran.
Cyberattacks – a neglected consequence of withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal
Following the U.S.’ decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal, it is expected that Iranians will retaliate in the form of cyberattacks with potentially devastating results.
China and India establish “oil buyers’ club” to counter OPEC
Should this “oil buyers’ club” become a reality, New Delhi and Beijing will have greater leverage to negotiate with OPEC about oil prices and will also have a significant say in matters such as importing more crude oil from the US.
Under the Radar: Minorities pose threat to Iranian stability
At a time when serious talk of regime change resurfaces in Washington, an understanding of Iran’s domestic stability is more important than ever. Alongside economic and political pressure, the rifts between ethnic and sectarian groups within Iran will be one of the key risks to the regime which Tehran’s foes could target.
The U.S has neglected an imperative consequence of withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal: Cyberattacks
Following the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal, retaliation in the form of cyberattacks could have potentially devastating results.
