Tag "elections"

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Latin America Politics

Bolivia’s (re)turn to the left: The significance of Luis Arce’s electoral victory

Candidate Luis Arce of Bolivia’s Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) appears to have claimed an impressive victory of over 54% in the 18th October general election. Arce claimed around 24% more votes than his next closest rival, the centre-left Carlos Mesa of Comunidad Ciudadana (CC). His victory represents a political U-turn for Bolivia, a vote to return to socialism and reject the centre-right politics of interim president Jeanine Áñez. Taking into account Arce’s significant victory and close relationship with controversial former Bolivian president Evo Morales, what can we expect from Bolivia and the President-Elect going forward?

North America Politics

10 reasons why Trump is likely to win re-election

President Trump has been repeatedly reported to be trailing in the polls for this week’s General Election. However, we predict that the incumbent’s re-election is highly likely, and not as improbable as the mainstream media, polls and political risk institutions suggest.

International Politics

Populism, Leadership and Broken Campaign Pledges

Despite their struggle against the spread of the virus, populist leaders should not necessarily be counted out by their opponents. Their failings in the face of COVID-19 means their political opponents should regard them with greater attention than before, as the ensuring political landscape is one easily taken advantage of by populist rhetoric. 

Europe Security

Belarus and Russia: Will Putin Back Lukashenko or Watch his Downfall?

Belarus and Russia have been experiencing a deterioration in their relationship for years now. However, the current protests sweeping Belarus in light of the elections of August 2020, which controversially found President Lukashenko to have secured 80% of the vote, could prove to be a turning point for the already tenuous alliance between the two former Soviet states. President Putin has hitherto been cautiously supportive of Lukashenko to the extent that Moscow is still able to exercise flexibility of action. Examining current and previous developments between the two states in light of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, the best option for Putin remains to refrain from interference for the time being. 

Africa Insights

Cameroon: Conflict Continues in Lead-up to Elections

On February 7th, parliamentary elections will be held in Cameroon, a nation plagued by internal conflict for the last four year. The prospect of elections has seen a ramping up of tensions, with a significant increase in violence from both the separatists in the country’s west and government forces.

Africa The Security Briefing

Benin’s Democracy: What has happened to it?

The aftermath of April’s legislative elections in Benin laid bare the public’s displeasure with President Patrice Talon’s administration.

Europe Politics

Division and Apathy in North Macedonia

On 5th May, voters in North Macedonia went to the polls to choose a new president. It was the first election held since the country changed its legal name from

Africa Politics

South Africa elections: Opportunities and challenges

South Africa’s recent general election has bucked the international trend towards populism by consolidating its democracy at the political centre.

Europe Politics

Viktor Orbán and risks of suspension from European Parliament

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party was suspended with immediate effect in March from the EPP centre-right bloc in the European Parliament. Brussels is taking a stand, but what are the risks to relations between the EU and newer member states like Hungary?

Africa Politics Sub-Saharan Africa

Is Ghana’s Economic Growth Failing to Reach The People?

Improvements to the country’s macroeconomic story may not be enough to maintain the support of the Ghanaian electorate, and keep the NDC challenge at bay.