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Africa Politics Security

The Political Economy of Sudanese Reform

Since the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, the civilian Council of Ministers headed by Abdullah Hamdok has been tasked with realising the aspirations of the Sudanese people who took to the streets to protest for a better future. All the while, they are hindered economically by the legacy of Sudan’s affiliation with transnational terrorism. Meanwhile, the presence and influence of Sudan’s military officers remains significant, especially in the face of myriad security concerns, whose political ambitions are undimmed.

Economics Finance North America

Killing the Dollar: A Side-Effect of COVID and its Cures?

Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has consistently functioned as a safe harbour for investors caught by any sort of turbulence. Thus, no one was surprised by its appreciation at the height of the current pandemic, which began in April 2020. And no one will be surprised if vaccine makers’ promises to end the pandemic null all those gains. Yet, the currency’s status and reputation have been weakening since the demise of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1974 to the point that, as a side-effect, COVID and its cures may be lethal for the dollar’s international dominance.

Latin America Politics

Brazil – First 2022 Election Forecast

As the end of 2020 approaches, incipient forecasts about Brazil’s 2022 general election scenario start emerging. As the recent years — and even months — have insistently shown, new facts can easily move the needle towards unforeseen directions, which demands continuous monitoring and analysis. As of December 2020, however, these are the main insights for a forecast on the outcome of Brazil’s 2022 election for President.

Europe Finance

EU treaty instrument may mitigate risk of money laundering in the single market

The European Commission is planning to use Article 116 of TFEU in order to clamp down on multinational companies using favourable tax schemes in some EU member states to their advantage. The treaty instrument is designed to mitigate the risks associated with foreign subsidies that distort competition in the single market.

Economics Latin America

IMF Money? Colombia’s Listening!

After a year of bad news due to the  COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions, Colombia’s fortune is finally improving: at the end of September, the IMF expanded Colombia’s credit line from USD 10.8 billion to USD 17.2 billion.

Covid-19 Europe

Sweden Might Avoid a Second Wave, But at What Cost?

Sweden has taken a notably lax approach to dealing with Coronavirus, avoiding lockdowns and trying to act as if all were normal. However, this apparent indifference to the worldwide pandemic has born costs to Sweden’s international reputation, and the economic benefits appear somewhat smaller than hoped.

Latin America Security

Argentina: A Second Falklands Brewing?

The Falklands are once more set to be the centre of a dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom if Argentina does not recover from its economic woes. Fears of possible new tensions rise with a president that is seeking to divert attention  and use the Falklands to refocus the Argentine mindset.

Economics Latin America

Crisis besets Venezuela: A failing regime?

Economic downturn, trading tensions with the USA, and international sanctions have all begun to play a role in the destruction of the Maduro regime. The possible results of this are civil unrest, economic collapse and ultimately, a failed state.

Covid-19 Economics Insights North America

US: Inflationary pressures are highly unlikely

As a response to the Covid-19 outbreak, the United States unveiled a $2 trillion package in March – the largest of its kind. Aside from the expansion of debt, potential inflation has been a cause for concern. But several factors ensure that broad inflationary pressures will almost certainly be absent during the lockdown, and, likely, in the immediate period after.

Africa Economics Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia’s critical juncture: Ethnic tensions and liberal transition

After a failed coup in June, ethnic violence and repression are on the rise in Ethiopia.