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Top 11 Geopolitical Risks for 2022
Let’s take a butchers at some of the obvious risks – after which we’ll explore some of those that might not be on your risk radar. In total there are 11 – enough for a questionable football team.
Jordan and Israel Join UAE to Sign a Historic Solar Energy-for-Water Deal
Towards the end of November, Israel, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates signed a historic resource sharing agreement in the biggest display of regional cooperation ever undertaken between Israel and its Arab neighbors. With funding and solar technology from the UAE, the deal establishes a solar farm in Jordan which will provide electricity to Israel. In exchange, Israel will provide water to Jordan, building a desalination plant on its Mediterranean coast. In addition to representatives from Israel, Jordan, and the UAE, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry attended the deal’s signing in Dubai.
Opinion: Deliberate Ambiguity: A Geostrategic Risk
Chinese military aircraft have dramatically increased their offshore aviation activity near Taiwan since late last year. This tendency has expanded over time to encompass a variety of various kinds of military aircraft, which are often sortied in ever-increasing numbers, mostly to the island’s west and southwest. However, several planes pass via the Taiwan Strait’s midline, which connects the island to mainland China, and almost all of them enter Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This dramatic surge in Chinese military activity near Taiwan is cause for concern, since it marks an unprecedented combination of activities heightening tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Watchdog Report and Corruption Discourse in London
The recent resurgence of the debate around the often cosy relationship between elected Members of the UK’s House of Commons and private sector actors has been dominating headlines. It throws into sharp relief the issues around paid work by MPs alongside their parliamentary duties and essential role of advocating for their own constituents. Despite the UK’s consistently high ranking on Transparency International’s corruption index (CPI), which measures perceived corruption as assessed by experts in academia and industry, continued coverage of ‘sleaze’ (hereafter corruption) and undue influence risk damaging the UK’s reputation on an international stage.
Opinion: Jihadists and the Far-Right: Allies in Extremism?
After the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan in August 2021, it found itself praised by an unlikely group: far-right extremists. While on paper these two movements seem diametrically opposed, there is actually a great deal of overlap between jihadism and the far-right. Multiple cases have already demonstrated the fluidity of extremist beliefs, and it is highly likely that “fringe fluidity” will continue to drive adherents from one extremist group to the other.
An Inwardly Focused Hong Kong: A Strategic Advantage for Singapore?
As Hong Kong’s leadership comes under increasing pressure from Beijing to double-down on its COVID-19 containment strategy, Singapore finds itself in an opportunistic position. Amidst a mass exodus of businesses and expats from Hong Kong, Singapore stands to regain its status as the leading Asian global trade hub through strategically implemented border control measures known as “Vaccinated Travel Lanes (VTLs”), which allow for quarantine-free travel for fully vaccinated travellers from an increasing number of major cities and trade hubs. These VTLs remain a crucial lifeline as Singapore moves toward COVID-endemicity.
European Union: Wildfires Ask Burning Questions on Disaster Prevention
As global warming accelerates climate change, Europe is experiencing more wildfires. Despite a downward trend in fires in Mediterranean Europe, record heat waves in the Summer of 2021 have caused the region to erupt in flames once more. Mediterranean economies are particularly vulnerable to wildfire damage and illustrate how the European Union should focus as much on fire prevention as on combatting blazes.
Colombia’s Gulf Clan: The Capture of a Kingpin and the Future of Colombia’s Cartels
In late October 2021, the Colombian military captured Dairo Antonio “Otoniel” Usuga, the head of the Gulf Clan and one of Colombia’s most wanted drug kingpins. Although Colombian president Duque compared Otoniel’s capture to Pablo Escobar’s killing, the two men were dissimilar in most ways. Furthermore, Otoniel’s downfall is unlikely to have a positive effect on Colombia’s drug war, and may actually cause the violence to increase.
Australia Launches AUKUS Pact: A Masterclass in Diplomacy or a Diplomatic Disaster?
On 15th September, political leaders from Australia, the UK and the US announced their intentions to set up a trilateral security partnership. The deal, known as AUKUS, represents a commitment to combating China’s growing ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. As part of the agreement, Australia will build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines in co-operation with the UK and US after scrapping a $90 billion-dollar submarine contract with France. AUKUS represents a revival of historical relations across the Anglosphere and a simultaneous deterioration of relations between members of AUKUS and the EU.
Chilean Election Unlikely to Halt New Barriers to Immigration
On 21 November Chileans will go to the ballot box to decide on their next President. The decision will impact whether the status quo persists or a final rupture with the legacy of former dictator Augusto Pinochet follows. With a new Migration Law coming into effect in 2022 and leading candidates standing on starkly contrasting electoral platforms, there are far-reaching implications for migrants coming to the country.
