Latest Insights
Europe’s Energy Dependence on Russia Leaves Moldova Vulnerable
The global surge in demand for natural gas following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions has had a devastating impact on Moldova’s energy security. Chisinau had no choice but to enter into negotiations with the Russian state-owned gas giant, Gazprom, to restore its energy supplies. As Russia is set to increase its share of European gas imports in Nord Stream 2, the EU must find a way to help protect Moldova from further Russian pressure.
Will Tech Regulations Curb Poland’s Technological Progress?
Poland has been strengthening partnerships with large American tech companies to facilitate cloud adoption in the past few years. However, simultaneously, Polish authorities have been following Brussel’s lead in regulating tech giants and working on adopting proposals intended to curb their market power. Taking the EU’s tech regulation proposals a step further, the Polish government also proposed a bill intended to prevent social media platforms from blocking or deleting certain posts. Stringent tech regulations might create an unfavorable business environment for tech companies who have been expanding their operations in Poland, and may stifle technological innovation.
Germany’s Recent Election: The Unlikely Power Brokers
The opening of Germany’s 20th legislative period on 26th October 2021 made headlines for many of the reasons most German Bundestag elections do – Germany’s global economic might and political influence in the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc. It also signalled the departure of the country’s longstanding Chancellor, Angela Merkel, as the head of the government, having held the position since 2005. However, aside from the long-anticipated exit of one of Europe’s most familiar political figures, this election also marks the consolidation of political trends set in motion long before voters cast their ballots this September.
The Coup in Sudan: can democratisation still be achieved?
Following last month’s coup, which dissolved the power-sharing agreement established between the military and civilian forces, protestors took to the streets of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, demanding the reestablishment of the civilian government. After years of division in leadership, economic hardship and isolation from the international community, this comes as another stumbling block on Sudan’s road to democracy. Nevertheless, military General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, now the head of government, maintains that the military aims to oversee Sudan’s democratic transition by June 2023. Whether this will be possible remains to be seen.
Iran – Taliban Relations: What to Expect
On October 4, less than two months since the Taliban takeover of Kabul, leaders of the group met with members of the Iranian delegation in order to discuss trade and business relations. The Iranian embassy in Kabul was one of few to remain operational. Historically, Iran has been considered among the Taliban’s bitter enemies. However, the current developments are indicative of Iran’s commitment to realpolitik.
Ukraine: In the Middle of Great Power Politics
Under pro-Western President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has made substantial progress in its drive for EU and NATO membership. However, domestic successes have been overshadowed by the increasingly difficult international position Kiev finds itself in. Russia remains a security threat as the frozen conflict in the Donbass persists; yet the US appears to be pulling support, most notably by lifting sanctions concerning Nord Stream 2. China, a major trading partner and vital vaccine supplier, is offering a hand to Ukraine. But at what cost?
Transnational Transparency: Southeast Asian Think Tanks Collaborate for Belt and Road Accountability
The Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) development throughout Southeast Asia is expected to contribute significantly to the economic and infrastructural development of the region. However, a perceived lack of transparency in China’s initiative compounds existing fears around rising debt and sovereignty over projects. Several Southeast Asian and Pacific think tanks have collaborated on a BRI monitor, aiming at evaluating levels of transparency and holding projects accountable. If successful, this could minimise issues of governance and implementation associated with the BRI to the benefit of recipient countries. Whether this success extends to other social and political issues associated with the initiative is unclear.
Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan: The World’s Next Narco-State?
Shortly after capturing Kabul, the Taliban announced that it would crack down on opium production in Afghanistan, threatening a blow to one of the country’s most profitable industries. While the group was somewhat successful at drug interdiction during its previous stint in power two decades ago, a number of factors, including the need for popular support, international pariah-hood, and ongoing economic collapse, render it unlikely that the Taliban will truly follow through on its promise.
Will France withdraw from Mali?
The internal affairs of Mali have been closely watched by France since the Malian government requested defence from armed groups in the North, leading to the 2013 French intervention. France has since invested large amounts of aid in developing the Malian army and state infrastructures to regain the trust of a large segment of the alienated rural population. Yet, the state-building element of the mission, as has often been the case during the 21st century, seems to not be producing the necessary effects, perhaps – along with the more recent actions of the Malian government – opening the door for a complete French withdrawal.
South Africa: Political Unrest in a Vulnerable Economy
In July of 2021 political unrest peaked in several South African provinces in response to prolonged economic instability and the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma. The protests were amongst the worst political violence South Africa has witnessed since the end of the Apartheid. The nation’s economy was particularly vulnerable to civil unrest, and served to deepen the impact of the riots.
