Security
Ethiopia – What next for Abiy Ahmed?
The apparent culmination of the Ethiopian government’s ‘law enforcement operation’ in Tigray poses a number of new questions for the future of Africa’s second-most populous country. The crisis in Ethiopia, which erupted at the start of November, is the culmination of a period of rising tensions between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
A Premature Decision? Assessing The Potential Impact Of Us Troop Withdrawal For The Future Of Somalia
The decision of the outgoing Trump administration to pull out US troops from Somalia by 15 January has come at a particularly critical period for the East African region. This could have broader security and humanitarian implications, threatening the progress of the past decade and leaving the country exposed to the influence of regional actors.
Russia and Sudan – New Naval Base Agreement a Sea Change for the Region
Sudan and Russia have announced an agreement that will see Russia gain access to a naval base at Port Sudan. The posting of Russian troops and warships will shift the balance of power in the region, whether by permitting Russian vessels to operate in the area for far longer than before, or by requiring adaptations in procedure and behaviour by other forces.
A Strategic Autonomy for Europe?
Back in late September, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, gave a speech stating the importance for the EU to move towards a strategic autonomy for Europe. This increasing cooperation is not supported by all and appears to depend on Biden’s future foreign policy for Europe.
300,000 Sailors Stranded at Sea Amid Global Pandemic
The UN has recently called for the international community to rescue the crews of commercial ships, gas and oil platforms, and other workers out at sea who have been instructed to keep working, without relief, due to Covid-19.
Armenia and Azerbaijan: Conflict in Nagorno Karabakh continues to erode regional security
A flare-up between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region raised concerns over the security and stability of the Caucasus for more than a month. A Russian-brokered deal between the two is highly likely to ensure the region’s security, although long-term peace is an unlikely outcome.
COVID 19 and the Shifting Maritime Balance
In South East Asia, the reduction of the navy budgets in key countries might threaten the balance of power by weakening their presence in a highly disputed area. Indeed, China has already adapted its policy in the South China Sea to benefit from the weakening of its opponents.
Rising tensions in Eastern-Ladakh – Wider Foreign Policy Implications
In recent history, tensions between China and India over control of the Galwan Valley have never been as high. Whereas China has the upperhand in the border dispute, India is trying to find other ways to frustrate China in its search to increase its geopolitical influence over the region.
North Korea’s recent nuclear advances: what are the implications for European security?
On the 10th of October 2020, North Korea unveiled what appeared to be its biggest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile, during a military parade organised in Pyongyang. This new ICBM, although currently untested, reflects North Korean nuclear advancements and revives the global debate surrounding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. For the European Union, North Korean nuclear capabilities represent a strong risk for its security.
Libya – The Impacts of the Ceasefire on Libyan Politics
On 21 August 2020, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli and its rival administration controlling Eastern Libya announced their commitment to a ceasefire and to finding a political solution to the conflict that has ravaged the country since 2011. So far, the truce has been successful in preventing further violence. However, it has opened the door to political infighting within both parties which could compromise the overall inter-Libyan dialogue.
