Security
Nagorno Karabakh – The Conflict in Perspective
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is often wrongfully seen as another post-Soviet frozen conflict in both academia and in policy-making circles. Although the conflict is indeed a product of specific preconditions and deliberate Soviet policies, it differs from other protracted ethno-political conflicts like in Georgia or Moldova. Gaining a deeper understanding of how this conflict came about, and its underlying causes, is essential for understanding the current episode of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Argentina: A Second Falklands Brewing?
The Falklands are once more set to be the centre of a dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom if Argentina does not recover from its economic woes. Fears of possible new tensions rise with a president that is seeking to divert attention and use the Falklands to refocus the Argentine mindset.
Cuts in the European Defence Fund’s budget: at what cost?
The European Defence Fund (EDF) was originally intended as a key measure for achieving European strategic autonomy. Its downsizing is putting future EU military and industrial capabilities into question, while highlighting the permanent lack of defence cooperation between EU member states.
Mozambique’s Insurgency & Prospects for Regional Insecurity
The discovery of large mineral and liquid natural gas deposits in Mozambique in 2010 boded well for Mozambique’s future, but conflict between Islamist militants and the central government over these resources has resulted in many fatalities and mass displacement. The President of Mozambique downplays the seriousness of the situation, but neighboring African states and African regional bodies fear that the conflict will spread beyond Mozambique’s borders.
Russia’s Strategy in Africa
Rumors of Russian involvement in Mali have gained momentum since 2018. Russia has been accused of backing the coup that took place in August 2020, orchestrated by high ranking members of the Malian army. These officers had in fact returned a week before the coup from two months’ training in Russia. The coincidence was enough for analysts to link Assimi Goita, leader of the new Junta, to the Russian government. Even if this link has yet to be proven, the growing connection between Russia and sub-Saharan countries is threatening the balance of power in the region.
Belarus and Russia: Will Putin Back Lukashenko or Watch his Downfall?
Belarus and Russia have been experiencing a deterioration in their relationship for years now. However, the current protests sweeping Belarus in light of the elections of August 2020, which controversially found President Lukashenko to have secured 80% of the vote, could prove to be a turning point for the already tenuous alliance between the two former Soviet states. President Putin has hitherto been cautiously supportive of Lukashenko to the extent that Moscow is still able to exercise flexibility of action. Examining current and previous developments between the two states in light of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, the best option for Putin remains to refrain from interference for the time being.
EU: Recent Migrant Influx Questions The Block’s Policy
A summer surge in migrants during the global coronavirus pandemic proves to be challenging for the European Union. The block’s tougher stance on migration since the 2015 crisis will likely require adjustments, as an influx of migrants from the Middle East and Latin America burdens southern Member States. However, internal collision on the issue is unlikely to lead to substantial migration policy reforms.
MENA Power Brokers: Esmail Qaani
Under Qaani the Qods Force will continue Iran’s strategy, but their activities are likely to be more careful, restrained and in line with mainstream policy. How will this affect the Middle East?
Potential end of a Philippines-US Security Treaty
The US-Philippine alliance is on the rocks, which has major implications for the Asia-Pacific: it marks a notable decrease in US influence in the region, creating a power void that will be filled by China, and further fragmenting a region that is already facing a growing arms race.
Russia and Ukraine: Nothing good lies ahead?
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s decision to sign the Steinmeier formula has allowed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to resume. However, a few months after the Normandy Four summit, the chances of reaching a solution for the protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine remains unlikely.
