Europe
The Bulgarian Energy Market between Subsidies and Challenges
Many know Bulgaria as the poorest country in the EU. The country consistently lags behind its Western partners and ranks the lowest in a variety of areas. From disposable income to media freedom, as well as corruption and trust in the government. However, there seems to be an area in which Bulgaria is outperforming the EU average: green development. A combination of subsidies and ponderous growth has fostered this outcome, but the way ahead is not guaranteed.
Reality of Post-Communist Transitions Risks Entrenching EU-Central Europe Divide
Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, and his Polish counterpart, Mateusz Morawiecki, argue that new powers handed to the European Commission, allowing the EU to withhold payments of the €750bn Covid recovery package from member states that fail to meet EU standards on the rule of law, are a politically motivated attempt to target their countries.
Belarus: Democratic awakening in stalemate
While Belarusian strongman Lukashenko has held onto power since the highly contested August 2020 presidential election, public discontent with the regime has persisted in the face of police brutality and human rights abuses. As the West increases sanctions on Belarusian officials and the Kremlin’s support transforms into pressure, it is critical to assess whether Europe’s last authoritarian stronghold will survive in 2021.
Absence of an EU-Turkey strategic partnership undermines regional security
The European Council summit in December 2020 presented an opportunity for Brussels to formalise a strategic partnership with Turkey to manage the crises in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria and Libya. Instead, it exposed divergence between France and Germany over how the EU should confront Ankara’s assertive foreign policy. Whilst French President Macron is in favour of putting strong pressure on Turkey’s President Erdogan, German Chancellor Merkel believes that it is vital to remain open to dialogue. This lack of strategic clarity puts regional security at risk given the importance of Turkish cooperation with Brussels over handling common issues in irregular migration and local conflict.
Italy: Will the Government Fall (Again)?
Amid a global pandemic and with 209 billion euros to be spent to counter the effects of the economic downturn (-9.9% GDP), the Italian government is facing yet another crisis. Will this lead to the third change in the executive in less than three years? Or will the majority find a compromise before it is too late?
Ethiopia – What next for Abiy Ahmed?
The apparent culmination of the Ethiopian government’s ‘law enforcement operation’ in Tigray poses a number of new questions for the future of Africa’s second-most populous country. The crisis in Ethiopia, which erupted at the start of November, is the culmination of a period of rising tensions between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence: the case of Europe
Nuclear disarmament has always been a very sensitive and divisive issue among the EU Member States. But in a world with less credible US security guarantees and a more assertive Russia in the East, a revived debate on a EU nuclear deterrent, which would either rely on the British or French nuclear arsenals, cannot be avoided, as it could potentially equal to the final stage of a well-structured European defence arrangement.
Denmark’s Delayed #MeToo Movement and the Myth of Gender Equality
Three years after the rest of the world was rocked by #metoo protests, Denmark is now experiencing its own gendered paradigm shift. A combination of factors contributed to the postponement of #metoo in Denmark; mainly, a cultural disdain for political correctness. However, the fact that #metoo is still relevant, several years after its peak, shows that the movement is resilient, and its accomplishments will likely stick around for years to come.
Small-Country Diplomacy: What if Bulgaria Prevents Further EU enlargement?
Discussions of further enlargement of the EU have largely stalled since the Brexit referendum. Among others, France emerged as the main obstacle on Western-Balkan countries’ path towards Brussels. But the recent Berlin Process summit has proved that Sofia could be an even tougher nut to crack, especially for Skopje.
Macron’s fight for Freedom of Speech
President Emmanuel Macron used a warlike tone following the recent terrorist attacks that have hit France. Assuring that fear would change sides, the President’s position has sparked a strong response with a call to boycott in several Muslim countries, and several communities have led ‘anti-France’ movements.
