Europe
EU: Recent Migrant Influx Questions The Block’s Policy
A summer surge in migrants during the global coronavirus pandemic proves to be challenging for the European Union. The block’s tougher stance on migration since the 2015 crisis will likely require adjustments, as an influx of migrants from the Middle East and Latin America burdens southern Member States. However, internal collision on the issue is unlikely to lead to substantial migration policy reforms.
Belarusian Protests: Russia’s Reluctance
Russia seems unlikely to intervene in anti-Lukashenko protests in Belarus, despite what most Western and Russian news sources report. Instead, they reluctantly stand on the sidelines, unwilling to oust the President, but unwilling to support him either.
Greece and Turkey: Energy Security Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean
Overlapping maritime claims and strategic energy interests have resulted in a clash between Greek and Turkish naval ships in the waters of Cyprus, mutual public hostilities. The high tensions and decades of antagonism between the two, however, are unlikely to result in open warfare. The recently discovered Eastern Mediterranean gas and oil fields, have inspired a powerful energy alliance between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which challenges Turkey’s energy hub ambitions.
Russia: Anti-Extremism Law Amendment Amid Protests in the Far East
A recent amendment to Russia’s anti-extremism legislation categorizes alienating territories from the country as extremism. The change arguably serves as a deterrent to the current mass protests in the Far East city of Khabarovsk, a persistent threat to the regime’s stability, as well as a new legal provision for anti-extremism legislation that has already been used.
Italy Becomes More Anti-Immigrant and Anti-EU
Domestic and international events are increasing the appeal of nationalistic parties.
Will Further Sanctions Stop the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline?
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea is intended to transport natural gas from Russia to Europe, mainly to Germany. There are only 150 kilometers (93 miles) before the Baltic Sea pipeline is completed. Despite warnings from German politicians to impose further sanctions following a suspected poison attack on a Russian opposition figure, it is unclear whether construction works will come to a full stop.
Serbia: Robust Q1 Performance Unlikely to Continue
The Serbian economy performed well during the first quarter of 2020. Structural factors, such as a smaller dependence on tourism, as well as effective fiscal and monetary responses, have significantly alleviated contractionary pressures. However, guiding the economy throughout the rest of the year will be a more laborious endeavour.
Hungary: Coronavirus and Orban’s Power Play
For Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, the coronavirus pandemic is another opportunity to pursue his approach of power politics in a democracy, that is increasingly at odds with the EU’s values.
EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: Vietnam’s Competitive Gains
Given the recent slowdown in trade growth in major economies, Vietnam remains an outlier. The country’s import-export turnover crossed USD 500 billion in 2019.
Kosovo: Government toppled over Coronavirus
On 25 March the smaller party in Kosovo’s ruling coalition, the LDK, won a vote of no-confidence in the government of which it was a part. The vote was initiated over the government’s handling of the coronavirus, but this was not the only reason that the government fell.
