Africa
Democratic Republic Of The Congo: Seeking Support In The Shadow Of Kabila
The collapse of the coalition between President Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila threatens to create a void in DRC politics. Whilst international actors have been swift to commend Tshisekedi, his own political fortunes now rely on finding allies amongst the very opposition who question his victory in 2018, all the while fending off Kabila’s still-potent influence.
Mozambique and the Fight Against Insurgency
Following a lack of progress in combating the Islamic insurgency in Cabo Delgado, President Filipe Nyusi has turned to private military contractors for help. With so many PMCs operating within the same conflict, it is worth examining who they are and how effective they can be in tackling the insurgency.
Mozambique’s President Nyusi Accepts Portuguese Assistance for Cabo Delgado Insurgency
Mozambican resistance (including private military contractors) has been overwhelmed – over 2,000 deaths have been officially recorded, while violations of human rights continue to spiral. Hope for a solution therefore rests on the President’s willingness to accept the external aid that civilians desperately need.
Russia: How the Kremlin is Gradually Overtaking Africa
From private military companies supporting local governments to Russian state-linked corporations exploiting the resource-rich continent, Moscow has launched an active campaign to regain its sphere of influence in Africa. Russia’s use of greyzone military capabilities, and its position as a critical security provider for the conflict-ridden and politically unstable continent, strengthen the Kremlin’s leverage to contest Chinese and American interests in Africa.
What do Divergent Security Interests between the Malian and French Governments mean for the Future of French Operations in the Sahel
Growing divides in security approaches between the Malian and French governments are making security objectives harder to achieve in the Sahel. Recent developments are likely to complicate the issues further, as the new prime minister Moctar Ouane calls for more negotiations with armed groups in the north.
Counter-terrorism in the Sahel: Can Task Force Takuba be a Game Changer for France
In 2021, Task Force Takuba, bringing together the special forces of 7 European countries to fight terrorism in the Sahel, will become fully operational with an initial mandate of 3 years. France, stuck in what looks like an unwinnable war despite the mobilisation of 5,100 troops as part of Operation Barkhane since 2014, has been advocating for a “Europeanisation” of the military intervention in the region for quite some time. While Takuba will enable more tactical wins against terrorist groups and enable France to break with its diplomatic and military isolation, it is unlikely to change the direction of the conflict. In this context, what is the future of operation Barkhane?
Water Security and the GERD: Is Conflict Brewing on the Nile?
Egyptian and Ethiopian tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have been escalating over the past decade. Whilst Egypt’s concerns over water scarcity could lead to conflict in the long-term, internal development could alleviate worries over scarce water resources. Egypt’s desire to recoup their position as regional hegemon, however, may prove influential in the escalating tensions.
Somalia – A Triple Threat to Instability?
Internal and external forces have ominously converged in recent weeks, threatening the tentative state of stability in Somalia. Domestically, President Mohammed Farmaajo’s efforts to manoeuvre his path to re-election in 2021 are sparking considerable internal strife, while internationally, a hurricane of potentially harmful geopolitical winds is circling around Somalia.
Conflict Moves West in Mali, Towards the Senegalese Border
The Katiba Macina, a jihadist group originating in the Mopti region in Mali, has started in the recent months to settle in the Kayes region, in the West of Mali. This situation threatens to extend the Malian unrest into neighboring countries, particularly Senegal, which has been safe up to now from attacks by jihadist brigades.
A Premature Decision? Assessing The Potential Impact Of Us Troop Withdrawal For The Future Of Somalia
The decision of the outgoing Trump administration to pull out US troops from Somalia by 15 January has come at a particularly critical period for the East African region. This could have broader security and humanitarian implications, threatening the progress of the past decade and leaving the country exposed to the influence of regional actors.
