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Security South Africa

Mozambique: Cabo Delgado deployments pits SADC solidarity against Rwandan unilateral interests

Throughout July, both Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed troops to Mozambique to combat the long-running Islamist insurgency. While the Rwandan troops were first to deploy, their secretive arrival has been dogged by controversy surrounding Rwanda’s intentions. Meanwhile, the SADC force has been troubled by more tangible concerns, such as funding. Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi’s role in both cases has been contentious; pivotal in allowing the Rwandan mission whilst delaying the SADC deployment. 

Europe Power Brokers

Fidesz-Managed Foundations Assume Control of Hungary’s Higher Education System

Through a recent $1.7 billion allocation (comprised of government funds and various property assets) to the privately managed foundation, Mathias Corvinus Collegium (M.C.C.), Victor Orban has expanded the mandate of his governing party, Fidesz, to include the unilateral administration of Hungary’s university system. The immensity of the monetary transfer coupled with the deliberate inclusion of private, Fidesz adjacent interests represent the further consolidation of Orban’s autocratic power and jeopardize institutional legitimacy through unfettered kleptocratic corruption. Though the geopolitical implications cannot yet be quantified, the impact of Orban’s flagrant, politically motivated annexation of Hungarian higher education on capital markets and electoral politics could, potentially, be significant.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Khorasan as the Next Syria?

As NATO forces prepare to finally depart Afghanistan, a resurgent Taliban, al-Qaeda and Islamic State threaten to reverse two decades of progress. Given the toxic combination of poor governance, political exclusion, dysfunctional economies, security vacuums and repressive regimes along Afghanistan’s porous borders, the potential resurgence of al-Qaeda and emergence of new challenges such as Islamic State-Khorasan Province threatens to transform the country into the epicentre of a new regional conflict complex across South and Central Asia. Despite assumptions that NATO’s withdrawal represents a conclusive end to the ‘War on Terror’, current indicators suggest this merely represents a dangerous new chapter in the struggle against global jihadism.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Rising tension due to Gulf maritime security: Possible threat to the global economy?

There was recently an attack on the Mercer Street vessel belonging to an Israeli billionaire, with Iran being blamed for the incident. These kinds of attacks have been happening since the beginning of the year, and it appears highly likely that they will continue. There is a possibility of maritime security breaches in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Such developments could lead to a rise in political, economic and security issues, especially if they were to coincide with an Israel-Iran confrontation.

Europe Politics

Slow EU Enlargement Affords Hungary Leverage

Serbia, North Macedonia, and Albania have agreed to a border-free travel zone between their countries. Although it is an effort to open up their economies following the COVID-19 pandemic, the regional initiative also reflects frustration with the European Union for its slow accession process. Meanwhile, in taking over the Visegrad Group presidency, Hungary has made Balkan EU accession one of its key priorities. This puts Hungary in a strong political position. The risk of a migration crisis in Europe following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan means that the EU has little choice but to intensify its enlargement agenda.

China Politics Technology and infrastructure

Technological pull or competitive drive? China’s rover landing sends a message to the United States

On Friday 14th May, China’s Zhurong rover landed on Mars, becoming the first Chinese spacecraft to do so and only the second nation, behind the US, to land a spacecraft successfully on Mars. China hopes their Zhurong rover will give them 90 days of service as it studies the surface of the planet, collecting samples and data. This is an historic moment for China, as they demonstrate yet another arena where they can compete against and match the US. This follows their recent launch of the initial part of China’s first permanent space station, as they push to become technological leaders in a world where technology has become sovereign.

Insights

A House of Cards: Northern Ireland Brexit Quagmire

“The bonds that hold the United Kingdom together are fraying. The government needs to try to mend them”, proclaimed The Economist in its editorial of 17 April 2021. In their opinion, the “union is now weaker than at any point in living memory”. Political leaders in Britain have risked the safety of the union, they claim, with First Minister and DUP leader Arlene Foster particularly at fault for “stupidly” opposing the ‘soft’ Brexit advocated by Theresa May, which precipitated Boris Johnson’s ‘hard border’ Brexit. To top it all off, they brazenly claim that Johnson’s most important task as Prime Minister is to hold the union together, and that if he fails, “he will go down in history not as the man who freed the United Kingdom [from the ‘tyranny’ of the EU], but as the man who destroyed it”.

Asia Pacific Technology and infrastructure

Southeast Asia’s wave of internet regulation comes to Indonesia

Indonesia’s new internet regulation requires platforms to remove ‘prohibited’ content—defined as anything violating Indonesian law, disturbing public order, or inciting unrest—within twenty-four hours. The government insists the law is needed to combat disinformation and avoid the destabilizing effects of ‘fake news’. But critics worry it may be a ploy to silence online dissent. The law aligns Indonesia with Southeast Asia’s trend of increased internet regulation. How online platforms react will determine regional internet developments.

Security Southeast Asia

Hollow Diplomacy: Backlash at ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Crisis

As violence between anti-coup protesters and the Tatmadaw regime in Myanmar worsens, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, remains uniquely situated to navigate towards a return to democracy. Their policy of ‘non-interference’, however, restricts the extent to which they can engage the crisis directly. The international attention and responsibility that ASEAN has accrued, with backing from international organisations and countries like the US, poses a risk to their credibility. If they cannot overcome their diplomatic limitations, ASEAN risks appearing ill-equipped to maintain regional peace and security.

Middle East/North Africa Security

Symbioses of power in Iraq and the Popular Mobilisation Units

In my first article I discussed the risk of perpetual violence in Iraq and Syria fuelled by both numerous non-state actors there and the increasingly cronyistic authoritarian system in which they operate. This was followed by a more detailed look into the illicit economic activities of militias across Iraq and Syria. Leading on from this, today’s commentary will shift from an economic to a more political focus, exploring the symbioses of power in Iraq and the role of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU).