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Africa Politics

Côte d’Ivoire – Do new EU laws promise sweet success or a bitter aftertaste?

Impending EU legislation seeks to reduce the Côte d’Ivoire cocoa industry’s reliance on minimum wages, child labour, and environmental degradation. Yet these efforts may be hindered by the coronavirus pandemic, and cynical buyers seeking alternative sources. The EU’s efforts also come as the industry in Côte d’Ivoire sits in the midst of several complex political and legal storms.

Africa Politics

East African Federation Looks Set for Further Delay

The creation of an East African Federation (EAF) has been steadily progressing since the latest initiative began at the very end of the 20th century. The proposed ‘super-state’ has received rhetorical support from African leaders and would be an exciting development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, such progress has been repeatedly beset by setbacks and delays and looks certain to be delayed once again, with the 2023 target for confederation almost certain to be missed. Several underlying issues need to be resolved if the project is to avoid the complete collapse that befell previous attempts.

Europe Politics

A Never-Ending Saga: Kosovo’s Elections

On February 14th, 2021 Kosovo held its sixth parliamentary election in fourteen years. The result was a resounding victory for Albin Kurti and his left-leaning Vetevendosje party, gaining just over 48% of votes. This will likely transform the tone of Kosovo’s domestic politics, but Kurti’s ability to deliver on his wide-ranging promises may be limited by the state’s difficult realities. More definitively, his pro-Albanian stance makes it highly unlikely that Kosova-Serb relations will see any meaningful improvement. 

Africa Covid-19

Could Zambia’s Debt Default Signal a Domino Effect on the African Continent?

In November 2020, news outlets reported that Zambia had become the first African country to default on debt against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, after opting out of a $42.5 million eurobond repayment. Zambia’s external debt payments have increased significantly since 2014, from 4% of government revenue to an estimated 33% in early 2021. As neighbouring countries in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to suffer the economic squeeze of the pandemic, there are fears that others will follow Zambia in defaulting sooner than experts anticipated. 

Africa Economics

End of the CFA franc: A possible turning point in Francafrique?

The CFA franc has long been cited as the representation of France’s economic “grip” on Africa and forms a central pillar of Françafrique – France’s relationship with its former African colonies. However, in an effort to move away from the controversial aspects of the region’s common currency, France and the CFA countries have initiated a number of reforms – with the former also pushing for the adoption of the “Eco” by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). This move would help remove the most visible elements of French influence; however, it is unlikely to assuage the allegations of French neo-colonialism that hamper Paris’ foreign policy objectives. 

Europe Politics

Irregular Migration to Europe: How a New Pact is Shifting Old Routes

The EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum aims to address irregular migration through better management of external borders and stronger international partnerships. While certain aspects of the proposal create opportunities for a better cooperation, the current approach to stricter return policies is pushing asylum seekers towards riskier and less controlled migration routes to Europe, putting lives at risk and increasing criminal activities.

Latin America Risk Pulse

The Implications of Colombia’s Decision to Grant Temporary Residence to Venezuelan Refugees

On 8th February, Colombian President Ivan Duque announced that Colombia would grant temporary residence to over 950,000 undocumented Venezuelan migrants in the country. This announcement constitutes a significant humanitarian measure, with the potential to have a regional and international impact. What is the situation of Venezuelan migrants in Latin America and what impact might Duque’s decision have both domestically and in broader terms?

Eurasia Politics

Turkish Democracy Again at a Crossroads

While Turkish citizens are trying to cope with Covid-19, the government took the opportunity to further its agenda. In an unprecedented move, the Turkish government replaced Boğaziçi University’s director with Melih Bulu, a non-faculty member at the university and a former politician under Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.

Politics Sub-Saharan Africa

The Zondo Commission: Consequences for President Ramaphosa

The Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture or the Zondo Commission, headed by Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, has been notified about the overwhelming scale of corruption and fraud involving public bodies under the presidency of Jacob Zuma (2009-2018) in South Africa. The Commission’s findings have badly damaged the reputation of the African National Congress (ANC) and South African institutions. The revelations of this ongoing inquiry highlight a pressing issue for Cyril Ramaphosa, Zuma’s successor as president: Ramaphosa must restore confidence in South African politics in order to restore the position of both his own party and South Africa’s international standing.

Middle East/North Africa Politics

Biden’s policy shift means Saudi Arabia will have to adapt to regain favour with Washington

On Thursday, February 4, Joe Biden announced the US State Department’s new foreign policy on Saudi Arabia. The announcement confirmed a long-awaited shift in US foreign policy which will see an end to US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and a new effort to find a peace agreement to end the conflict. Prioritising human rights for future relations with the Saudis, Biden’s policy likely provides significant leverage to draw the Saudis out of Yemen as they seek to ameliorate their relations with the new administration.