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International Politics The Week Ahead

Weekly Risk Outlook

Greece begins sending back migrants to Turkey. Peruvians head to the polls. Reserve Bank of Australia reacts to changes in AUD. Netherlands votes on EU-Ukraine agreement.  All in the Weekly Risk Outlook.

North America Politics

The Ides of March primaries and likely nominees

In the wake of the May 15 primaries most pundits hold that the die is cast in favor of Clinton and Trump. This is assessment is a bit rushed since

Europe Politics

Will Germany’s regional elections be the beginning of the end for Merkel?

Upcoming regional elections on Sunday March 13 will see a rise of the anti-immigrant party AfD at the expanse of Merkel’s ruling party and coalition partners. But will this trigger

Latin America Politics

FARC isn’t the biggest threat to Colombia’s political establishment

A new political force is set to hijack post-conflict politics in Colombia, and it’s not going to be the FARC. Will an outsider candidate take the 2018 Colombian elections? Informally,

Europe Politics

Deconstructing Serbia and Macedonia’s 2016 elections

Upcoming elections will consolidate the ruling party’s grip on power in Serbia and could well return a disgraced government to power in Macedonia. EU leaders will gloss over the former,

Asia Pacific Politics

Myanmar’s first freely elected parliament gets under way

Myanmar’s first freely elected parliament held its opening session on Monday. This significant step on Myanmar’s road to democracy will send a positive sign to investors looking for stable business

Asia Pacific Politics

The decline of “One Country, Two Systems” in Hong Kong

January has seen a series of student protests throughout Hong Kong, driven by concerns over Beijing’s growing influence in Hong Kong’s domestic affairs. These political developments create several risks for

Economics Europe

Greece faces new unrest over pension reforms

As part of its third bail-out package in summer 2015, the Greek government agreed to reduce its large – and growing – burden of state pensions. The proposed reforms, however,

Natural resources and energy Sub-Saharan Africa

East Africa’s pipeline politics in 2016

East Africa’s LAPSSET project remains at the volatile nexus of political and commercial dynamics with its short to medium term success increasingly unlikely. East Africa’s aspirations for economic integration were

Europe Politics

What to expect in Europe in 2016

In addition to the continuation of current crises, Europe will face new matters of contention in 2016. Nationalism and fragmentation within the EU will keep growing, including on the Brexit