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Europe International Security

The United States’ War Against Russian Disinformation: Is the GEC Fit for Purpose?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has brought renewed focus to America’s ability to defend against the Kremlin’s separatist narratives that seek to stoke ethnolinguistic tensions amongst Russian-Speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas and Crimea.  The State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC), charged with leading the U.S.’ response to disinformation, is a fledgling six-year-old department with a shifting mission, unstable staffing and a limited budget. Despite significant headwinds, the Center’s modest efforts to counter disinformation through strategic partnerships with foreign governments and media outlets, as well as its sponsorship of emerging counter-disinformation (CPD) technologies continue to hold promise for the ongoing effort to counter Russian propaganda.

Europe Security

“De-Nazification is an Absolute Must”: Moscow’s Narrative in Ukraine

Russia’s propaganda narrative of ‘de-nazifying’ Ukraine has begun to undergo a linguistic de-securitization of sorts, in parallel with the Kremlin’s focus on more minimalist objectives as part of its ‘special military operation’. Any further linguistic de-vilification of the Ukrainian side will be key to a successful negotiation process between Kyiv and Moscow, since Putin cannot afford to be seen, especially domestically, as negotiating with ‘neo-Nazis’.

Eurasia Security

The Russo-Ukrainian War and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Faltering Ceasefire

Azerbaijan has sought to exploit the world’s and Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine in order to militarily resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. As Moscow becomes extensively embroiled in its so-called ‘special military operation’ against Kiev, it is highly likely that Baku will feel emboldened enough to push further into the contested region, even if this results in the antagonisation of Russian peacekeepers.

Europe Security

Ukraine: In the Middle of Great Power Politics

Under pro-Western President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has made substantial progress in its drive for EU and NATO membership. However, domestic successes have been overshadowed by the increasingly difficult international position Kiev finds itself in. Russia remains a security threat as the frozen conflict in the Donbass persists; yet the US appears to be pulling support, most notably by lifting sanctions concerning Nord Stream 2. China, a major trading partner and vital vaccine supplier, is offering a hand to Ukraine. But at what cost?  

Eurasia Security

Have Russia and Ukraine been on the Verge of Open War?

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine appears to have reached a new peak this year as President Putin has recently deployed over 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border. Russia’s actions here initially appear to be ambiguous, as it can be interpreted in more than one way – has Russia been attempting to intimidate their enemies with a display of force and dominance, or are their intentions more aggressive? There is room to argue here that Russia has, at some point at least, been preparing for open war with Ukraine.

Europe Politics

Recovery from Covid-19 in Eastern Partnership Countries Faces Political Hurdles

With the support of the European Union, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced in December a scaling up of its financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. However, potential for economic recovery from the pandemic in the region is undermined by EU marginalisation of issues in corruption and Russian subversion capabilities. It is unlikely that sustainable private-sector growth will be realised until the EBRD fiscal approach is complemented with a strategy to address these political challenges.

Europe Politics

Zelensky’s fall from grace

After taking the Ukrainian political stage by storm, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Servant of the People party faced off and lost to “mayoral” parties in the October 2020 local elections. Zelensky, falling short of providing Ukraine with the vigorous reformist policy he promised in his presidential campaign, has been gradually losing support from the public, threatening his and his party’s future in Ukrainian politics.

Europe Politics

Reality of Post-Communist Transitions Risks Entrenching EU-Central Europe Divide

Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, and his Polish counterpart, Mateusz Morawiecki, argue that new powers handed to the European Commission, allowing the EU to withhold payments of the €750bn Covid recovery package from member states that fail to meet EU standards on the rule of law, are a politically motivated attempt to target their countries. 

Europe Security

Russia and Ukraine: Nothing good lies ahead?

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s decision to sign the Steinmeier formula has allowed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to resume. However, a few months after the Normandy Four summit, the chances of reaching a solution for the protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine remains unlikely.

Europe Politics

Ukraine: Presidential Elections 2019

Ukrainians will cast their vote in a historic Presidential election on Sunday. Poroshenko and Zelensky are the main contenders.