Latest Insights
Opinion: Can the 2018 elections truly reshape Mexico?
Which AMLO will govern: the pragmatist or the firebrand? Lisdey Espinoza explores whether the new president’s inconsistencies, choice of candidates, and lack of clarity regarding his policies were an electoral tactic or a worrisome trait.
Iran’s waning involvement in the South Caucasus
With the JCPOA finalized in 2015, Iran seemed to finally build on its potential to become a shaping actor in the South Caucasus. Yet the scrapping of the JCPOA in April 2018 threatens to disillusion those who were optimistic about new trading and investment opportunities. Under growing pressure, the region seems to be neglected again by Tehran.
Post-conflict Colombia looks towards the future
The election of Ivan Duque could represent a pivot point in post-Conflict Colombia. How effectively his administration handles the ongoing implementation of the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC may presage the ultimate success or failure of his presidency.
Cyberattacks – a neglected consequence of withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal
Following the U.S.’ decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal, it is expected that Iranians will retaliate in the form of cyberattacks with potentially devastating results.
The Houthis: Sunni-Shiite conflict as a self-fulfilling prophecy
After failing to confront Iran’s growing power in Iraq and the Levant, Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s attempt to prevent Iranian meddling seems to have reinforced the sectarian split in Yemen – handing Iran the chance to integrate the Houthi movement into its network of proxies.
Mexico’s new president and the risks to democratic institutions
While his detractors claim his economic policies will turn Mexico into “the next Venezuela”, the real risk of his presidency may be his lack of regard for Mexico’s fragile democratic institutions, fewer than 20 years after the end of de facto one-party rule.
Ethiopia between risk and reform
Ethiopia is undergoing its most significant changes since the 1991 birth of the EPRDF ruling coalition under its controversial leader, Meles Zenawi. The last two months have witnessed the realigning of Ethiopia’s economy and bilateral relations with previous foes such as Eritrea and Egypt.
Fate of migrant ship Aquarius exacerbates divisions within EU
Italy’s decision to turn away the migrant ship, Aquarius, reinforced the deep schism within the EU on how to manage the migration crisis. With a pan-European solution looking increasingly unlikely, the crisis is only going to continue, increasing political and economic risk in the region by further emboldening the populist right and undermining the EU’s capacity to solve collective problems.
What role does North Korea play in Chinese strategy?
A week after the summit between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un ended, the steady drumbeat of analysis goes on. Much of the discussion has focused on what North Korea gained from the meeting.
Colombia’s president-elect inherits a polarized country
As the youngest president in Colombia’s history, Iván Duque’s fresh-faced and scandal-free image may prove useful in uniting Colombia in support of his administration. However, several formidable challenges have the potential to derail his administration.
