Natural resources and energy
Mozambique faces a nexus of smuggling and extremism
Fears arise over an Islamic insurgency in Northern Mozambique that threatens the recent discovery of $30 billion of oil and gas reserves. Yet these concerns may be clouding the reality of blurred lines between extremism and organised crime. How has the Jihadi threat emerged?
Guest Post: Blood chocolate – climate change and conflict in the West African cocoa belt
Cocoa is a vital economic sector in West Africa, but climate change threatens to reduce the area suitable for its cultivation, bringing with it a risk for mass migration and civil violence.
What rising resource nationalism in Africa means for mining investors
Lately, resource nationalism in the African mining sector has increased. In some African states, which make key contributions to international mining, larger mining rents indicate greater national control.
The Energy Briefing: Despite Caspian Sea agreement, obstacles to Trans-Caspian pipeline remain
On August 12, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan reached an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. In particular, the treaty removes a legal barrier to building a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, several obstacles to the construction of the pipeline remain.
The Energy Briefing: Will US gas exports to Europe surge?
As US LNG exports have increased, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have viewed them as a way to decrease Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas. However, their ultimate success will be determined by market dynamics. At the moment, these dynamics generally favor Gazprom’s continued dominance.
The Energy Briefing: The never-ending battle for Libya’s Oil Crescent
The competition for the control of state revenues remains tense as Haftar’s Libyan National Army intensified its attempts to seize key institutions ahead of December 2018 elections. Although oil production increased in 2017, continuing insecurity due to armed groups still largely constrain Libya’s oil potential.
Sanctions, oil, and the emerging China-Russia-Iran axis
Although China has backpedalled on proposed tariffs on U.S. crude imports, the move is indicative of its need to diversify sources and steps may now be taken to enable China to play the oil card in the future – including imports from Iran despite sanctions, and drawing closer to Russia.
Challenges of Arctic shipping in Russia: The case of Novatek
In early August Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, launched the second train of Yamal LNG even earlier than planned. Although gas production is ahead of schedule, Novatek’s shipping capacities are lagging behind.
The Nigerian oil industry and renewed instability in the Delta
Throughout the spring and summer of 2018, the Nigerian petroleum industry has suffered major production and export complications, exacerbated by an atmosphere of political instability.
Iran’s waning involvement in the South Caucasus
With the JCPOA finalized in 2015, Iran seemed to finally build on its potential to become a shaping actor in the South Caucasus. Yet the scrapping of the JCPOA in April 2018 threatens to disillusion those who were optimistic about new trading and investment opportunities. Under growing pressure, the region seems to be neglected again by Tehran.
