Posts From Ruben Tavenier
Russia and the Myanmar Coup: An Opportunity for Increased Arms Exports
Whereas most countries have condemned the coup in Myanmar, Russia is openly advocating for enhancing military technological cooperation with the military regime. In doing so, Russia seems to see the new military rule as an opportunity to increase its influence in Myanmar whilst boosting its arms exports. This may be a classic example of Moscow’s limited bilateral engagement, seeking financial gain and increased influence whilst preserving their strategic autonomy.
Russia and the Arctic Council in 2021: a New Security Dilemma
Coming May, Russia will assume chairmanship of the Arctic Council until 2023. In a region so strategically significant, the challenge for Russia lies with rhyming its military build-up in the arctic with the cooperative nature of the council, whilst not letting the council jeopardize its freedom of movement in any way.
Russian-Indian Arms Trade: Between Autarky and Interdependence
India recently launched an ambitious indigenization campaign for its defense industries, seeking to reduce its dependency on arms imports and simultaneously boost domestic manufacturing. Although this could potentially hurt the Russian military industry – India’s main supplier – India’s plans seem to mostly consist of rhetoric. It remains unlikely for the short to medium term that India will be able to effectuate the strategic shift from being dependent on imports to being self-reliant.
Nagorno Karabakh – The Conflict in Perspective
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is often wrongfully seen as another post-Soviet frozen conflict in both academia and in policy-making circles. Although the conflict is indeed a product of specific preconditions and deliberate Soviet policies, it differs from other protracted ethno-political conflicts like in Georgia or Moldova. Gaining a deeper understanding of how this conflict came about, and its underlying causes, is essential for understanding the current episode of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Belarusian Protests: Russia’s Reluctance
Russia seems unlikely to intervene in anti-Lukashenko protests in Belarus, despite what most Western and Russian news sources report. Instead, they reluctantly stand on the sidelines, unwilling to oust the President, but unwilling to support him either.
