Posts From Aman Navani

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Europe Politics

Brexit Agreement delays make extreme outcomes more likely

Theresa May’s decision to delay the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons and go back to the EU seeking more concessions has increased the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. This article evaluates the probabilities of various Brexit scenarios that could take place in light of this recent development.

Finance South and Central Asia

Default of IL&FS sends shockwaves through India’s financial markets

A series of defaults by India’s key infrastructure lender, Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services Limited (IL&FS), has sparked fears about the health of other non-bank lenders and led to a squeeze in India’s corporate debt market that these lenders have relied upon.

Economics Europe

Italian government bond sell-off limits room for populist spending

The recent bond market sell-off reinforced concerns that investors have over the government’s spending plans. The Italian government is now likely to delay its plan to increase spending, in order to calm market jitters caused by the exposure of domestic banks to sovereign debt.

Europe Politics

Fate of migrant ship Aquarius exacerbates divisions within EU

Italy’s decision to turn away the migrant ship, Aquarius, reinforced the deep schism within the EU on how to manage the migration crisis. With a pan-European solution looking increasingly unlikely, the crisis is only going to continue, increasing political and economic risk in the region by further emboldening the populist right and undermining the EU’s capacity to solve collective problems.

Economics Europe

Disagreements on eurozone reform impact economic outlook

Emmanuel Macron’s ambitious plans to reform eurozone institutions received a further setback when German chancellor Angela Merkel toed her party’s line and rejected some of his bolder proposals when the two met in Berlin last week.

Economics Politics

Theresa May’s evolving Brexit strategy

The transition agreement between the UK and EU means that although the UK will officially leave the EU in March 2019, it will still remain in the customs union and single market for another 21 months. The UK’s concessions are indicative of the government’s broader negotiating strategy with the EU.