Posts From Aman Navani
Italy: New coalition government takes charge
The far-left Five Star Movement and the centre-left Democratic Party formed a new coalition government to stave off the threat of a rapidly rising far-right. The new government is likely to boost market confidence and improve ties with the EU in the short run. However, the long-term viability of this partnership remains unclear.
Italy: Likelihood of general elections
The recent regional elections in Abruzzo and Sardinia have highlighted the contrasting political fortunes of the two populist parties that make up Italy’s coalition government.
Brexit Agreement delays make extreme outcomes more likely
Theresa May’s decision to delay the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons and go back to the EU seeking more concessions has increased the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. This article evaluates the probabilities of various Brexit scenarios that could take place in light of this recent development.
Default of IL&FS sends shockwaves through India’s financial markets
A series of defaults by India’s key infrastructure lender, Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services Limited (IL&FS), has sparked fears about the health of other non-bank lenders and led to a squeeze in India’s corporate debt market that these lenders have relied upon.
Italian government bond sell-off limits room for populist spending
The recent bond market sell-off reinforced concerns that investors have over the government’s spending plans. The Italian government is now likely to delay its plan to increase spending, in order to calm market jitters caused by the exposure of domestic banks to sovereign debt.
Fate of migrant ship Aquarius exacerbates divisions within EU
Italy’s decision to turn away the migrant ship, Aquarius, reinforced the deep schism within the EU on how to manage the migration crisis. With a pan-European solution looking increasingly unlikely, the crisis is only going to continue, increasing political and economic risk in the region by further emboldening the populist right and undermining the EU’s capacity to solve collective problems.
Disagreements on eurozone reform impact economic outlook
Emmanuel Macron’s ambitious plans to reform eurozone institutions received a further setback when German chancellor Angela Merkel toed her party’s line and rejected some of his bolder proposals when the two met in Berlin last week.
Theresa May’s evolving Brexit strategy
The transition agreement between the UK and EU means that although the UK will officially leave the EU in March 2019, it will still remain in the customs union and single market for another 21 months. The UK’s concessions are indicative of the government’s broader negotiating strategy with the EU.
