Posts From Riccardo Dugulin
As the Islamic State loses territory in Syria and Iraq, the radical Islamist group is likely to increase its focus on foreign operations leading to a heightened terrorist threat in Europe for 2017.
With 2017 fast approaching, Europe and the EU will likely continue to be exposed to a range of security, financial and political risks.
In the wake of the assassination of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov, terrorism is once again at the forefront of news about Turkey. A recent string of terrorist attacks underscores Turkey’s heightened exposure to instability caused by ongoing security challenges.
The potential easing of travel visa requirements in Belarus is likely to boost the local economy while improving its regional and global image.
Russia’s counter-sanctions are hurting various European economies while major investment projects in Russia are being blocked by EU sanctions. This situation has led to enhanced tensions within the EU, thus increasing the risk of disunity regarding its policy towards Moscow.
weakened political class and ongoing social tensions expose France to several risk trends.
While the election of two opposition MPs does not change Belarus’ power balance, it does show signs of a thaw towards the opposition and the EU.
The ongoing Kurdish separatist insurgency and the Turkish operation in Syria increase the risk of additional PKK-linked attacks throughout the country.