Posts From Global Risk Insights
China’s Technological Self-Reliance Ambitions: Updates from the Fifth Plenum
[Article by Josh Bramble.] Beijing has long focused on self-reliance in technological innovation as a goal to mitigate dependence on foreign firms. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee’s Fifth
The Uncertain Future of the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement
In June 2020, the EU and the Mercosur trade bloc, which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, concluded negotiations over the Political Dialogue and Cooperation part of their Association Agreement, after the free trade section was completed in June 2019. With a number of EU member states and civil society organisations voicing concerns about the environmental impact of the deal, its ratification is becoming more unlikely in the short-term.
China’s pivot towards domestic-driven growth: not as easy as Xi hopes
China desperately wants to and must recover from its long-lasting dependence on exports as a means of economic growth. This is the objective of the dual-circulation strategy, which is set to become Beijing’s escape plan from the feared middle-income trap. However, with domestic consumption still weak, China is unable to survive without a good injection of public investment to boost its economic engine. The rush of rapid supply-side growth is hard to give up for a country used to abnormally high levels of GDP growth.
Sudan: Rising Tensions a Year and a Half after the Revolution
The Sudanese Revolution of December 2018 promised freedom, peace, and justice but a year and a half later people are struggling to survive. The impact of COVID-19, climate change, inflation and a precarious relationship with the United States leaves Sudan in a socio-economic and political situation that is not too different from the context people protested against in December 2018. The question remains, can Sudan deliver on its revolutionary promise with all these odds stacked against it?
10 reasons why Trump is likely to win re-election
President Trump has been repeatedly reported to be trailing in the polls for this week’s General Election. However, we predict that the incumbent’s re-election is highly likely, and not as improbable as the mainstream media, polls and political risk institutions suggest.
She Said: Interview with Frederike Probert from Mission Female
For our new column She Said, we had the honour to speak with Frederike Probert. We asked her for insights into female empowerment in the workforce and business context. Her insights are powerful as they shed light on work environments characterized by male overrepresentation.
China warns India over potential Huawei ban
China has threatened to punish Indian companies operating on the mainland. It will take such action if the Indian Government moves to ban Huawei Technologies from selling 5G telecom equipment
VPN providers warned in Russia
Russia has warned VPN providers that do not adhere to domestic censorship laws that they may face being banned. This is in-line with recent plans to create a ‘Sovereign Internet’. These laws include prohibiting access to sites on the country’s national block-list.
South Africa’s ‘new dawn’ of international strategy
After a troubled decade under President Zuma, South Africa is emerging to what new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has dubbed a ‘new dawn’.
The Week Ahead: 30 September – 6 October
Elections in Cameroon, Brazil, and Latvia. Kavanaugh confirmation. All in The Week Ahead. BRAZIL: Significant tension as elections loom and far-right leader appears to be in the lead This Sunday, Brazil’s more than
