Politics
Small-Country Diplomacy: What if Bulgaria Prevents Further EU enlargement?
Discussions of further enlargement of the EU have largely stalled since the Brexit referendum. Among others, France emerged as the main obstacle on Western-Balkan countries’ path towards Brussels. But the recent Berlin Process summit has proved that Sofia could be an even tougher nut to crack, especially for Skopje.
Morocco and Western Sahara – Military Posturing and Diplomatic Offensives
Whilst there has been no direct military confrontation between the Polisario Front and Morocco regarding the future of Western Sahara for a number of years, both Morocco and their opponent, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) have been deploying diplomatic overtures to sway opinion in their favour across the African continent and beyond.
What does a Biden presidency mean for the Middle East?
After a tense and lengthy electoral battle, Joe Biden has come out on top and is set to become the 46th President of the United States of America. Given the US position as the world’s only superpower, there are question marks over what this might mean for the rest of the world. The Middle East, as a region of great strategic interest but also extensive turbulence, is an arena into which Biden will certainly be drawn.
Russian-Indian Arms Trade: Between Autarky and Interdependence
India recently launched an ambitious indigenization campaign for its defense industries, seeking to reduce its dependency on arms imports and simultaneously boost domestic manufacturing. Although this could potentially hurt the Russian military industry – India’s main supplier – India’s plans seem to mostly consist of rhetoric. It remains unlikely for the short to medium term that India will be able to effectuate the strategic shift from being dependent on imports to being self-reliant.
Macron’s fight for Freedom of Speech
President Emmanuel Macron used a warlike tone following the recent terrorist attacks that have hit France. Assuring that fear would change sides, the President’s position has sparked a strong response with a call to boycott in several Muslim countries, and several communities have led ‘anti-France’ movements.
Crisis in Peru: The interplay between COVID and Corruption
Peru is in the throes of a political crisis following the outbreak of protests after the impeachment of now former President Martín Vizcarra, ostensibly due to corruption during his time as Governor of the province of Moquegua between 2011 and 2014. The protestors see Vizcarra’s impeachment as politically motivated, carried out to halt the anti-graft initiatives he sought to implement; the protests have also been inflamed by alleged police brutality that led to the deaths of 2 demonstrators. It is likely that some concession by the government will be made in order to defuse this tension.
Japan – Taking Initiative in the Asia-Pacific Region
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga embarked on his first diplomatic visits last month, meeting the Vietnamese and Indonesian governments. Suga’s choice of Vietnam and Indonesia, both important members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), demonstrates his aim to continue the policy formulated under his predecessor Shinzo Abe for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). Alongside this, there are indications that Japan will step up the involvement of its defence industry both for the country’s own security and that of the wider Asia-Pacific region. With an ineffective US Asia policy and a gutted US State Department, the moment is right for Japan to take the initiative towards peace and prosperity in the region.
What a Biden Presidency Means for Latin America
With his position as President-Elect all but guaranteed, it is important that leaders and policymakers grasp the policies and stances Joe Biden is likely to take on a myriad of issues. This is especially true for leaders in the region closest to the United States, Latin America. Drawing on previous statements and actions by Joe Biden, particularly during his time as Vice-President under President Barack Obama, this article will highlight that Biden is likely to pursue a more positive and co-operative agenda with the region compared to President Donald Trump.
Brazil – First 2022 Election Forecast
As the end of 2020 approaches, incipient forecasts about Brazil’s 2022 general election scenario start emerging. As the recent years — and even months — have insistently shown, new facts can easily move the needle towards unforeseen directions, which demands continuous monitoring and analysis. As of December 2020, however, these are the main insights for a forecast on the outcome of Brazil’s 2022 election for President.
Who will win the race to Greenland?
Greenland is the golden ticket for any state that wants to advance into the Arctic. Previously at the margins of global attention, the sparsely populated state is resource-rich and strategically located. In order to achieve full independence, Greenland must cut economic ties with its former colonial power, Denmark. Renewed global interest could be a window of opportunity to secure foreign investment. With many suitors, which path will Greenland choose and why?
