Posts From James Trigg
African Aviation: Ready for Take Off Once Again
The African aviation industry, like its counterparts around the world, has endured a tumultuous pandemic. Losses in revenue and traffic, as well as uncertainty about future prospects, have pushed some airlines to the brink of collapse and beyond. Yet, other operators have seized the opportunities presented, and the sector’s ambitions have never been higher.
Mozambique: Cabo Delgado deployments pits SADC solidarity against Rwandan unilateral interests
Throughout July, both Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed troops to Mozambique to combat the long-running Islamist insurgency. While the Rwandan troops were first to deploy, their secretive arrival has been dogged by controversy surrounding Rwanda’s intentions. Meanwhile, the SADC force has been troubled by more tangible concerns, such as funding. Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi’s role in both cases has been contentious; pivotal in allowing the Rwandan mission whilst delaying the SADC deployment.
Uganda Seeking Inroads to Compete for Regional Influence
The continued closure of key border crossings between Rwanda and Uganda has prompted both nations to seek alternative trade prospects and influence amongst their neighbours. For Uganda, recent efforts have centred on Burundi and the DRC, with infrastructure agreements and plans for military cooperation directed at offsetting Rwanda’s recent diplomatic gains with their eastern neighbour.
Kenya: Camp Closures Weaponised as Relations with Somalia Sour
The maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia has dragged diplomatic relations between the two neighbours to a new low, with the most likely outcome favouring Somalia. In threatening to close Dadaab and Kakuma, Kenya may be seeking a new source of pressure to apply to Mogadishu through deploying the prospect of thousands of returnees as leverage.
Côte d’Ivoire – Do new EU laws promise sweet success or a bitter aftertaste?
Impending EU legislation seeks to reduce the Côte d’Ivoire cocoa industry’s reliance on minimum wages, child labour, and environmental degradation. Yet these efforts may be hindered by the coronavirus pandemic, and cynical buyers seeking alternative sources. The EU’s efforts also come as the industry in Côte d’Ivoire sits in the midst of several complex political and legal storms.
Hybrid War Crimes Court Promises Justice But Political Rivalry May Impede Pursuit
The African Union’s call for a court in South Sudan to prosecute and punish individuals responsible for war crimes is a significant overture by the continental organisation. Trials in the aftermath of genocide in Rwanda and the International Criminal Court’s recent efforts demonstrate the benefits of such convictions, but the particular circumstances in South Sudan means prosecutors must remain cogniscent of the precarious political situation.
The Political Economy of Sudanese Reform
Since the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, the civilian Council of Ministers headed by Abdullah Hamdok has been tasked with realising the aspirations of the Sudanese people who took to the streets to protest for a better future. All the while, they are hindered economically by the legacy of Sudan’s affiliation with transnational terrorism. Meanwhile, the presence and influence of Sudan’s military officers remains significant, especially in the face of myriad security concerns, whose political ambitions are undimmed.
Democratic Republic Of The Congo: Seeking Support In The Shadow Of Kabila
The collapse of the coalition between President Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila threatens to create a void in DRC politics. Whilst international actors have been swift to commend Tshisekedi, his own political fortunes now rely on finding allies amongst the very opposition who question his victory in 2018, all the while fending off Kabila’s still-potent influence.
Russia and Sudan – New Naval Base Agreement a Sea Change for the Region
Sudan and Russia have announced an agreement that will see Russia gain access to a naval base at Port Sudan. The posting of Russian troops and warships will shift the balance of power in the region, whether by permitting Russian vessels to operate in the area for far longer than before, or by requiring adaptations in procedure and behaviour by other forces.
Morocco and Western Sahara – Military Posturing and Diplomatic Offensives
Whilst there has been no direct military confrontation between the Polisario Front and Morocco regarding the future of Western Sahara for a number of years, both Morocco and their opponent, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) have been deploying diplomatic overtures to sway opinion in their favour across the African continent and beyond.
