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Latin America Politics

Bolivia’s (re)turn to the left: The significance of Luis Arce’s electoral victory

Candidate Luis Arce of Bolivia’s Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) appears to have claimed an impressive victory of over 54% in the 18th October general election. Arce claimed around 24% more votes than his next closest rival, the centre-left Carlos Mesa of Comunidad Ciudadana (CC). His victory represents a political U-turn for Bolivia, a vote to return to socialism and reject the centre-right politics of interim president Jeanine Áñez. Taking into account Arce’s significant victory and close relationship with controversial former Bolivian president Evo Morales, what can we expect from Bolivia and the President-Elect going forward?

Asia Pacific Security

COVID 19 and the Shifting Maritime Balance

In South East Asia, the reduction of the navy budgets in key countries might threaten the balance of power by weakening their presence in a highly disputed area. Indeed, China has already adapted its policy in the South China Sea to benefit from the weakening of its opponents.

India Security

Rising tensions in Eastern-Ladakh – Wider Foreign Policy Implications

In recent history, tensions between China and India over control of the Galwan Valley have never been as high. Whereas China has the upperhand in the border dispute, India is trying to find other ways to frustrate China in its search to increase its geopolitical influence over the region.

Middle East/North Africa Politics

On the brink of state failure: Lebanon’s continuing crisis

After a year of protests at corrupt sectarian rule and a stagnant economy, Lebanon has come full-circle in re-appointing Saad Hariri as Prime Minister. As a state, Lebanon faces multiple existential challenges which Hariri has a gargantuan task to surmount.

Asia Pacific Security Under The Radar

North Korea’s recent nuclear advances: what are the implications for European security?

On the 10th of October 2020, North Korea unveiled what appeared to be its biggest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile, during a military parade organised in Pyongyang. This new ICBM, although currently untested, reflects North Korean nuclear advancements and revives the global debate surrounding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. For the European Union, North Korean nuclear capabilities represent a strong risk for its security.

International Security

The Future of US-Russia Relations Post-2020

For half a decade, the spectral presence of Russia has haunted US politics and caused concern on both sides of the aisle. What does the future hold for the complicated relationship between Moscow and Washington?

Africa Politics

South African Government Accused of Falsifying Unemployment Relief Denials

For six months, South Africans have been well aware of their government’s corruption and incompetence in delivering its $26 billion COVID-19 relief package. Now, many South Africans are being notified that their applications for assistance placed in May have been declined, stating “alternative income source identified.” Yet many citizens who have been receiving this reason are unemployed.

Eurasia Security

Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: a New Proxy War in the South Caucasus?

For decades, the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has evoked border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recently, armed violence between the two countries threatens to escalate into full-blown conflict, which could involve both Turkey and Russia.

North America Politics

10 reasons why Trump is likely to win re-election

President Trump has been repeatedly reported to be trailing in the polls for this week’s General Election. However, we predict that the incumbent’s re-election is highly likely, and not as improbable as the mainstream media, polls and political risk institutions suggest.

Economics Latin America

IMF Money? Colombia’s Listening!

After a year of bad news due to the  COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions, Colombia’s fortune is finally improving: at the end of September, the IMF expanded Colombia’s credit line from USD 10.8 billion to USD 17.2 billion.