The ongoing political crisis in Nicaragua between the Sandinista government under President Daniel Ortega and anti-government protesters continues to worsen. The crisis marks the worst period of political violence that Nicaragua has faced since the end of its civil war in 1989. Over 170 have been killed since the onset of the protests in April. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights and Amnesty International have condemned the human rights abuses committed by the government while repressing the protests.
Widespread opposition to the Ortega government continues to grow, as demonstrated by a 24 hour national strike that brought the country to a standstill on 14 April. Attempts to mediate the crisis have failed due to continued violence. On 16 April, a 24 hour ceasefire agreement broke after shootings and a deadly arson allegedly committed by pro-government forces.
Why did the protests break out?
The protests began in response to pension reforms implemented by the Ortega government. The reforms were meant to cut benefits for workers and employers and increase their payroll payments. After at least 10 deaths occurred as a result of police repression, the government cancelled the reforms in hopes of restoring order. However, the protests did not subside as demands for the removal of Daniel Ortega from office grew.
Daniel Ortega, who first came into power after the Sandinista Revolution in 1979, has been criticized for authoritarianism and nepotism throughout his three consecutive terms since 2007. Opposition and civil society groups accuse Ortega of manipulating elections, suppressing dissidents, and placing his wife, Rosario Murillo, as Vice President in order to consolidate power. Ortega also faced criticism for the $50 billion construction plan for the Nicaraguan Canal, which the opposition saw as unrealistic and a threat to the livelihoods of thousands of peasant farmers and indigenous people that it would displace.
Who is involved?
The protests are largely made up of university students, workers, pensioners, and other dissidents. Support for the protests stems from across the political spectrum, including former Sandinista supporters. While the protesters are mainly unarmed, some protesters have fought the police and pro-government forces using rocks, molotov cocktails, and homemade mortars. Youth protesters have barricaded neighborhoods and towns such as Masaya, a crucial Sandinista stronghold during the 1979 revolution, to defend against government repression. Protesters and journalists have been subject to assassinations, kidnappings, and disappearances since the onset of the protests.
In addition to the regular police forces, armed para-police groups called “Sandinistas mobs” are also involved in clashes against the protests. The mobs are made up of Sandinista Youth members and other civilian supporters of the Ortega government. Resembling the “Colectivos” in Venezuela, the Sandinista mobs often ride in motorcyclist groups, are armed with pistols and assault rifles, and operate with total impunity from the police. According to Amnesty International, the Sandinista mobs collaborate with the police in order to threaten and attack protesters and dissidents while remaining outside the law and maintaining deniability of human rights abuses.
Outlook
The Catholic Church continues to try to mediate peace between the government and the protesters, but it does not appear that the violence will desist in the near future. The government demands that protesters cease barricading the neighborhoods they defend, but the protesters’ fear of reprisal prevents them from further trusting them. While the protesters experienced an early success in stopping the pension reforms, Ortega is likely to try to follow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s example and further entrench his authority rather than step down or hold a free election.
The deepening crisis could have catastrophic consequences for Nicaragua and Central America. The growing instability has brought business in the second poorest country in the Western hemisphere to a halt; the risks caused by it may detract foreign investors and undo decades of economic recovery from the previous civil war in the 1980s. The ongoing violence may also spark a refugee exodus similar to that of Venezuela. Neighboring countries that are already under turmoil such as Honduras and El Salvador may face greater pressure from exacerbated migration flows. Transnational criminal activity in the region may also expand further as the government continues to enable the Sandinista mobs’ extrajudicial activities and struggles to reestablish order.
