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Latin America Power Brokers

Colombia’s Gulf Clan: The Capture of a Kingpin and the Future of Colombia’s Cartels

In late October 2021, the Colombian military captured Dairo Antonio “Otoniel” Usuga, the head of the Gulf Clan and one of Colombia’s most wanted drug kingpins. Although Colombian president Duque compared Otoniel’s capture to Pablo Escobar’s killing, the two men were dissimilar in most ways. Furthermore, Otoniel’s downfall is unlikely to have a positive effect on Colombia’s drug war, and may actually cause the violence to increase.

Latin America Security

Mexican Marijuana: The Effects of Legalization on the Economy and the War on Drugs

Following in the footsteps of countries including Canada and Uruguay, Mexico’s lower house passed a bill on 10th March for the purpose of legalizing the recreational use of cannabis. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, often referred to as AMLO, has cited undermining drug cartels as one of the key reasons behind his support for the proposal. Nevertheless, though legalization is likely to prove an economic boon, its impact on crime is likely to be less substantial.

Africa The Security Briefing

The Shifting Threat Matrix in West Africa

In recent years, West Africa has been considered a relative oasis of stability in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the region faces a multitude of threats that could spell a new era of insecurity.

Latin America Politics

Challenges of Mexico’s drug legalisation

Mexican President-elect Obrador has declared his intention to combat drug cartels with a bold strategy – decriminalization of opium and marijuana. But while this policy may hurt the cartels, it

Central America Politics

Spike in protests a symptom of deeper issues in Honduras

On 17 December, Honduras’ electoral tribunal declared incumbent President Juan Orlando Hernandez the winner of the presidential elections. Resulting allegations of electoral fraud and public protests are however signs of deepening political instability in Honduras, a country already affected by widespread corruption, crime and poverty.

Latin America Security

Violence and unemployment on the rise in Rio

A year after the 2016 Olympics, Rio finds itself amidst a security crisis with spikes in violence causing tourism to drop and businesses to close. Organized crime has taken over Rio’s slums and the even the Armed Forces have been deployed in an attempt to contain the situation.

Latin America Security

A year after the peace treaty, violence is on the rise in Colombia

A year after Colombia’s landmark peace treaty with the FARC, excitement has turned into serious doubts about the deal’s success.

Latin America Security

FARC deserters put Colombia’s peace process at risk

Colombia faces an immediate danger to peace in the form of demobilising FARC, with the risk of recycling guerrilla fighters into criminal activity looming.

North America Security

Mexico court ruling hints at marijuana policy change

A historic ruling by Mexico’s Supreme Court regarding marijuana use could act as precedent to spur an about-face in Mexico’s drug policy. On November 4th, Mexico’s Supreme Court voted to

Latin America Security

Peru’s Shining Path insurgency reemerges as security threat

On August 9, Peruvian forces captured two top-ranking commanders of the Shining Path Maoist guerrilla, following a series of offensives between the army and the insurgents. The events suggest that the