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Europe Insights

Opinion: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine in Context

History provides the vital context to explain why events have come to pass in the international arena. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Why might conflict in that region persist? In the current conflict, many commentators look to the past few decades as the source of aggression. But, Russian aggression is shaped not exclusively by events in the recent past. Russia today does not embody a civilisation of just the last 30 or 100 years.

Eurasia Politics

Russia’s East is Fed Up

Fresh from a national referendum allowing for the continuation of President Vladimir Putin’s rule, Moscow capitalized on the renewed political mandate by arresting a troublesome regional governor. What followed next was a near unprecedented backlash from the inhabitants of the Khabarovsk region in Russia’s East, with 20-60,000 initial protestors getting involved in the single longest-running protest in the history of the Russian Federation. These protests represent the latest displays of a long-standing resentment of Moscow’s meddling in the east of the country, while also serving as an indictment of the failings of Russian federalism.

Europe Politics

Ulyukayev trial suggests elite discord in Russia

Alexei Ulyukayev’s conviction of bribery is a win for Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, but Russian elites are increasingly concerned about Sechin’s influence.

Economics Europe

Belarus will not be the “next Ukraine”

The weak status of Belarus’ opposition and the economic interest found in maintaining Russian interests indicate the country will remain stable.

Middle East/North Africa Natural resources and energy

Leading with Lukoil: Russia’s economic diplomacy in Iran

The approval of the Iranian Petroleum Contract is the culmination of a summer of economic diplomacy between Moscow and Tehran — with Lukoil at the center.

Security Technology and infrastructure

Russia-US cyber tensions show the true threat of cyberwar

Russia is now testing the limits of the current norm-based international regime that has thus far kept global cyberwar unrealized.

Middle East/North Africa Security

The Aleppo conflict faces risk of escalation

A tremendous battle has been going on for the past months in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. However, it should be stressed that the battle is much more a

Europe Politics

South Ossetia and Abkhazia face heightened political risk

Political unrest in Abkhazia and the looming potential of a national referendum in South Ossetia increase the risk outlook for the two breakaway republics. However, the regions are likely to

Europe Security

The Nuclear Implications of Turkey-Russia Tensions

Turkey’s downing of a Russian aircraft presents the threat of economic and geopolitical consequences for both nations. Among these consequences, the potential cancellation of a nuclear power agreement poses a feasible

Middle East/North Africa Security

Are Turkey and Russia headed for confrontation?

Turkey shoots down a Russian fighter jet. Sam Leonard explores what this means for the future of Turkish-Russian relations in this GRI Guest Post.  The news this morning that Turkey