Security
Top 11 Geopolitical Risks for 2022
Let’s take a butchers at some of the obvious risks – after which we’ll explore some of those that might not be on your risk radar. In total there are 11 – enough for a questionable football team.
Opinion: Deliberate Ambiguity: A Geostrategic Risk
Chinese military aircraft have dramatically increased their offshore aviation activity near Taiwan since late last year. This tendency has expanded over time to encompass a variety of various kinds of military aircraft, which are often sortied in ever-increasing numbers, mostly to the island’s west and southwest. However, several planes pass via the Taiwan Strait’s midline, which connects the island to mainland China, and almost all of them enter Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This dramatic surge in Chinese military activity near Taiwan is cause for concern, since it marks an unprecedented combination of activities heightening tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Opinion: Jihadists and the Far-Right: Allies in Extremism?
After the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan in August 2021, it found itself praised by an unlikely group: far-right extremists. While on paper these two movements seem diametrically opposed, there is actually a great deal of overlap between jihadism and the far-right. Multiple cases have already demonstrated the fluidity of extremist beliefs, and it is highly likely that “fringe fluidity” will continue to drive adherents from one extremist group to the other.
Ukraine: In the Middle of Great Power Politics
Under pro-Western President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has made substantial progress in its drive for EU and NATO membership. However, domestic successes have been overshadowed by the increasingly difficult international position Kiev finds itself in. Russia remains a security threat as the frozen conflict in the Donbass persists; yet the US appears to be pulling support, most notably by lifting sanctions concerning Nord Stream 2. China, a major trading partner and vital vaccine supplier, is offering a hand to Ukraine. But at what cost?
Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan: The World’s Next Narco-State?
Shortly after capturing Kabul, the Taliban announced that it would crack down on opium production in Afghanistan, threatening a blow to one of the country’s most profitable industries. While the group was somewhat successful at drug interdiction during its previous stint in power two decades ago, a number of factors, including the need for popular support, international pariah-hood, and ongoing economic collapse, render it unlikely that the Taliban will truly follow through on its promise.
Will France withdraw from Mali?
The internal affairs of Mali have been closely watched by France since the Malian government requested defence from armed groups in the North, leading to the 2013 French intervention. France has since invested large amounts of aid in developing the Malian army and state infrastructures to regain the trust of a large segment of the alienated rural population. Yet, the state-building element of the mission, as has often been the case during the 21st century, seems to not be producing the necessary effects, perhaps – along with the more recent actions of the Malian government – opening the door for a complete French withdrawal.
The Future of Afghanistan: Social Media Companies and the Taliban
Many political figures and analysts have made statements regarding their skeptical eye towards the progressive sentiments being shared on social media platforms by the Taliban. Yet, the terrorist group is still able to post freely facing barely any difficulties. The mass amounts of Taliban propaganda being spread online may increase the group’s political popularity, expand their member-base as well as international support, and ultimately, solidify their control in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s utilization of media platforms could potentially ignite a revitalized global Islamist militant movement and must be taken more seriously by social media companies.
Is Climate Change Fuelling Al-Shabaab’s Resurgence in Somalia?
Somalia has long struggled with the dual challenges of armed conflict and climate change, as observers of the fragile state suggest that the two phenomena are inextricably interlinked. Somalia’s experience illustrates how these complex linkages are indirect and contextual as shifting migration patterns, internal displacement and increased resource pressures exacerbate communal tensions and place unprecedented strain upon traditional modes of conflict management. Al-Shabaab has proved adept at exploiting such natural resource pressures and interclan tensions to fuel their jihadist insurgency in a manner which ominously foreshadows the future climate wars of the twenty-first century.
The Afghanistan Withdrawal’s Impact on the EU’s Strategic Autonomy
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan throws the NATO alliance’s sustainability into a state of flux. European policymakers may pursue a more deliberate course toward strategic autonomy if they determine that America is no longer a credible partner. Some quarters consider independent European security to be an impractical overcorrection given Europe’s capability deficiencies. The withdrawal from Afghanistan provides the opportunity for transatlantic policymakers to reassess NATO’s strategic priorities.
Mozambique: Cabo Delgado deployments pits SADC solidarity against Rwandan unilateral interests
Throughout July, both Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed troops to Mozambique to combat the long-running Islamist insurgency. While the Rwandan troops were first to deploy, their secretive arrival has been dogged by controversy surrounding Rwanda’s intentions. Meanwhile, the SADC force has been troubled by more tangible concerns, such as funding. Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi’s role in both cases has been contentious; pivotal in allowing the Rwandan mission whilst delaying the SADC deployment.
