Security
Political Tensions and Russian Influence: Threats to Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Rising tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are dragging the country into its most precarious political situation since the Bosnian War of 1992-1995. In early October 2021, Milorad Dodik – Bosnian Serb leader and member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency – announced plans to form an independent Bosnian Serb Army and pull out of joint state institutions. With international presence in the region waning, unresolved rivalries and opposing interests among the various ethnic groups have resurfaced. Combined with political interference from both Russia and Serbia, the situation threatens to damage the Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995.
Opinion: An effective Russian sanctions regime
As Brussels and DC continue to expand their sanctions package they risk hurting the Russian people more than the Russian state. To target the Russian state, the West must consider oil and gas export restrictions and stop insulating the Kremlin’s main source of income through SWIFT loopholes.
Is food insecurity a looming eventuality in China’s future?
China’s carbon emissions have soared following the reopening of the country after the Covid-19 pandemic. Without a serious reduction, it looks unlikely that China will be able to mitigate the disastrous repercussions these emissions will have on its agricultural industry and food security as a whole.
Opinion: Germany’s Influence on European Unity
In the build up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western nations were clear on where they stood on the issue. Between funneling weapons into Ukraine to threatening severe economic sanctions, many EU and NATO members vowed to punish Russia. One country that has been largely absent from this strong and clear response is Germany, who seeks to mitigate the domestic risks that punishing Russia entails. This self-interested position risks harming EU unity at a time when it’s needed most.
Africa’s Crime-Terror Nexus: Transnational Organised Crime, Illicit Economic Networks and Violent Extremism in the Sahel
Africa’s Sahel region lies at the epicentre of a sprawling jihadist insurgency straddling the ‘ungoverned spaces’ south of the Sahara. As U.S, French and African forces struggle to contain the violence spreading like wildfire across the Sahelian scrublands, one key dimension of instability which remains overlooked is the role of transnational organised crime and illicit economic networks in fuelling violent extremism across the region.
Drones, Disinformation and Proxies: What the Middle East’s ‘Forever Wars’ tell us about the Future of Conflict
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the shockwaves from the surge of democratic protests across the Middle East continue to reverberate throughout the region in the form of smouldering multidimensional proxy conflicts in Syria, Libya and Yemen. Great and regional powers’ increasing employment of drones, disinformation and local proxies are exacerbating broader global trends associated with hyper-globalisation, emerging technologies and societal fragmentation. Collectively, these trends fuel the multidimensional geopolitical contest being played out across the Middle East; an ominous harbinger of the murky shadow wars representing the new face of conflict in the twenty-first century.
Risk Factors for Svalbard Conflict between Russia and Norway
The unique provisions of the Treaty of Svalbard, NATO ambiguity on the status of Svalbard, and mounting geopolitical tensions between Russia and Norway signify a realistic probability of outright violation of Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard in the medium to long-term.
The Geopolitical Dynamics of Extraterritorial Detention
The Biden administration is undertaking a formal assessment of Cuba’s Guantanamo Bay military prison. Former President George W. Bush created the detention center in 2002 to hold foreign terrorist suspects in the aftermath of 9/11. President Biden wants to shut down the prison by the conclusion of his first term in 2024, resurrecting an Obama-era objective that was never realized.
Violence in Paradise: Mexico’s Cartel Wars Reach Tourist Playgrounds in Quintana Roo
Mexico’s vacation paradise of Cancun and the surrounding areas have recently found themselves in the news for the wrong reasons: a spike in cartel violence has victimized tourists and provoked a Mexican military deployment. The causes of this violence stem from multiple factors, the most complex of which is the weakening of Mexico’s entrenched organized crime syndicates and the near-meteoric rise of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Regrettably, the addition of military force to the region is unlikely to solve the root causes of the violence and may actually make the situation more dangerous.
Russia: Next Moves?
There are growing concerns that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, with satellite imagery confirming the build-up of the Russian military on the eastern border of Ukraine and Russia. Fears have been raised about the potential escalation of conflict by senior officials in both the United States and the EU. Would Russia invade Ukraine?
