Future Generator: News covering Peru will turn positive over the next month
The ‘Future Generator’ is a highly unique and cutting-edge approach to forecasting ‘media sentiment’, developed by a partnership between Global Risk Insights (GRI) and Ethnographic Edge (EE). The aim of the forecast is to determine how media sentiment towards a country’s political environment might develop in the future. Considering the impact of media sentiment on trading and investments, our forecasts will give readers more time and context to maximize on market opportunities.
The following is an analysis of Peru.
On the 11th of April, EE’s sophisticated data analytics produced a signal which stated that media sentiment over Peru’s political environment will improve over the next month. Considering the strong correlation between media sentiment and political events, EE draws the conclusion that Peru’s political environment will improve from now through mid-May.
GRI’s team of directors and our Latin American expert have assessed this signal provided by EE. Based on local expertise and political risk training, we agree with the data analytics produced that Peru’s media coverage will turn positive until at least mid-May. This is likely due to the following reasons:
President’s approval ratings surge in wake of floods
Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has this month been praised for his response to the damages caused by abnormal El Niño weather, which resulted in widespread flooding. His approval rating has increased from 32 to 43 percentage points, from March to April, according to a survey conducted by the pollster Ipsos Peru from April 11 to April 13. The floods have granted Kuczynski’s administration political favor in the wake of six months of declines in the President’s popularity, mainly instigated by corruption scandals.
The President, after attending Easter Mass, prayed for a moment’s silence for the victims of the recent floods, urging reflection on how to reconstruct a more “moral, Christian, dedicated, and honest country.” The President’s vocal message will likely connect well with the country’s religious. The surge in Kuczynski’s approval rating represents an extraordinary political turnaround, arising after a drop of six percentage points from February to March.
Immediate optimism in reconstruction efforts for the short to medium term
It is estimated that El Niño has caused approximately US$ 3.1 billion in damages in 2017, according to reports by the National Emergency Operations Center (COEN). In light of widespread devastation including 100 deaths and 158,000 people displaced, Kuczynski announced $9 billion for reconstruction projects in flood-hit areas over the next five years, with $3 billion to be invested in the first three years.
Jorge Nieto, Peru’s Defense Minister, has suggested that the floods have opened the door for considerable opportunity, in a statement advocating for a reconstruction of “historic proportions.” Peru will see its 2017 budget hiked by 3 percent in order to fund emergency efforts.
The goal is also to look beyond the short term. Kuczynski has pledged to work with mayors to stop homes being built in areas vulnerable to extreme flooding, while proposing hydrological studies along river basins to reduce future damages.
President Kuczynski’s energetic and vocal reactions to the damages caused by the recent floods, with the pledge of a substantial reconstruction effort, will produce a positive response in the media surrounding Peru over the next four weeks.