The ‘Future Generator’ is a highly unique and cutting-edge approach to forecasting ‘media sentiment’, developed by a partnership between Global Risk Insights (GRI) and Ethnographic Edge (EE). The aim of the forecast is to determine how media sentiment towards a country’s political environment might develop in the future. Considering the impact of media sentiment on trading and investments, our forecasts will give readers more time and context to maximize on market opportunities.
The following is a Future Generator assessment for Europe.
The EE signal suggest positive media sentiment towards Europe over the next three weeks
EE’s data analytics platform projects that media sentiment towards Europe will turn positive over the next three weeks. Considering the strong correlation between media sentiment and political events, EE concludes that the European political environment will stabilise in early February.
GRI assessment of the EE signal
GRI’s team of Europe experts have assessed the signal provided by the EE and agree with the conclusion that media sentiment towards Europe will turn positive by February 16.
It’s important to stress that the EE signal says media sentiment towards Europe will turn positive, implying that sentiment is negative right now – a signal which reflects Europe’s current political anxiety.
During the last week of January – when US President Donald Trump praised UK Prime Minister Theresa May for her country’s “Brexit” vote to leave the European Union (EU) – several far-right European leaders copied Trump’s campaign slogan.
2017 will bring crucial elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany. All three countries have far-right populist movements, and the leaders of those movements are openly strategizing a takeover that threatens the EU.
So, why is sentiment towards Europe projected to turn positive? The EU holds more power in its Brexit negotiations with the UK government, and those negotiations are set to begin soon.
The British Parliament is preparing to vote on its terms for Article 50, the formal process by which a country must leave the EU bloc. “Brexit” will not begin until Article 50 is triggered, and British lawmakers have just two weeks to debate the UK’s draft law. This tight timeline is causing division to the point of resignations.
Since the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU on June 23, 2016, representatives for the bloc have consistently said that the UK will regret leaving. Michel Barnier – the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator – put the UK on an 18-month timeline for its negotiations with the bloc. And last week, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstad said the UK could “reintroduce a request for membership” should it choose to re-enter the EU after leaving.
The EU’s message is clear: Britain’s “have our cake and eat it” approach is dead. Their goals are to preserve the bloc, prevent populism’s spread, and use the UK as a case study on what happens to those who leave.
The Europe expertise in this report was provided by Lauren Maffeo.